New South Wales state election, 2011

New South Wales state election, 2011
New South Wales
26 March 2011
All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Barry O'Farrell Kristina Keneally no leader
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens
Leader since 4 April 2007 4 December 2009
Leader's seat Ku-ring-gai Heffron
Last election 35 seats 52 seats 0 seats
Seats won 69 seats 20 seats 1 seats
Seat change Increase34 Decrease32 Increase 1
Popular vote 2,124,321 1,061,352 427,144
Percentage 51.15% 25.55% 10.29%
Swing Increase14.16% Decrease13.43% Increase 1.33%
TPP 64.22% 35.78%

Premier before election

Kristina Keneally
Labor

 Premier after election

Barry O'Farrell
Liberal/National coalition

Elections to the 55th Parliament of New South Wales were held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated in a landslide by the Liberal–National Coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell. Labor suffered a two-party swing of 16.4 points, the largest against a sitting government at any level in Australia since World War II. From 48 seats at dissolution, Labor was knocked down to 20 seats—the worst defeat of a sitting government in New South Wales history, and one of the worst of a state government in Australia since federation. The Coalition picked up 34 seats to win a strong majority, with 69 seats. It is only the third time since 1941 that a NSW Labor government has been defeated.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Results

Lower house

For pendulum immediately after the 2011 election, see Post-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2011.

New South Wales state election, 26 March 2011[1][2][3]
Legislative Assembly
<< 2007 — 2015 >>

Enrolled voters 4,635,810
Votes cast 4,290,595 Turnout 92.55% –0.09%
Informal votes 137,260 Informal 3.20% +0.43%
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal 1,602,457 38.58 +11.64 51 +29
  Labor 1,061,352 25.55 –13.43 20 –32
  National 521,864 12.56 +2.51 18 +5
  Greens 427,144 10.28 +1.33 1 +1
  Independent 367,493 8.84 –0.34 3 –3
  Christian Democrats 129,431 3.12 +0.65 0 0
  Family First 18,576 0.45 +0.45 0 0
  Other 25,018 0.60 0 0
Total 4,153,335     93  
Two-party-preferred
  Coalition 2,324,226 64.22 +16.48
  Labor 1,294,824 35.78 –16.48

Upper house

Legislative Council election, 2011[4][5][6]
Party Votes % won Swing 2011 seats 2007 seats Total seats Change
Liberal/National Coalition 1,943,246 47.7 ↑13.5 11 8 19 ↑4
Australian Labor Party 967,242 23.7 ↓15.4 5 9 14 ↓5
Australian Greens 453,125 11.1 ↑2.0 3 2 5 ↑1
Shooters and Fishers Party 150,741 3.7 ↑0.9 1 1 2 0
Christian Democratic Party 127,233 3.1 ↓1.3 1 1 2 0
Other 434,437 10.7 ↑0.3 0 0 0 0
Total 4,076,024     21 21 42  

Seats changing hands

Seat Pre-2011 Swing Post-2011
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Balmain   Labor Verity Firth 3.7 –7.2 3.5* Jamie Parker Greens  
Bathurst   Labor Gerard Martin 13.0 –36.7 23.7 Paul Toole National  
Blue Mountains   Labor Phil Koperberg 11.1 –15.8 4.7 Roza Sage Liberal  
Camden   Labor Geoff Corrigan 3.9 –22.8 18.9 Chris Patterson Liberal  
Campbelltown   Labor Graham West 18.5 –21.9 3.4 Bryan Doyle Liberal  
Charlestown   Labor Matthew Morris 14.6 –24.5 9.9 Andrew Cornwell Liberal  
Coogee   Labor Paul Pearce 7.2 –15.4 8.2 Bruce Notley-Smith Liberal  
Dubbo   Independent Dawn Fardell 0.9 –14.6 13.7 Troy Grant National  
Drummoyne   Labor Angela D'Amore 7.6 –24.3 16.7 John Sidoti Liberal  
East Hills   Labor Alan Ashton 14.1 –14.7 0.6 Glenn Brookes Liberal  
Gosford   Labor Marie Andrews 4.9 –16.7 11.9 Chris Holstein Liberal  
Granville   Labor David Borger 11.1 –13.7 2.6 Tony Issa Liberal  
Heathcote   Labor Paul McLeay 8.8 –21.4 12.7 Lee Evans Liberal  
Kiama   Labor Matt Brown 12.0 –19.5 7.5 Gareth Ward Liberal  
Londonderry   Labor Allan Shearan 6.9 –19.2 12.3 Bart Bassett Liberal  
Maitland   Labor Frank Terenzini 9.7 –16.0 6.3 Robyn Parker Liberal  
Menai   Labor Alison Megarrity 2.7 –27.1 24.4 Melanie Gibbons Liberal  
Miranda   Labor Barry Collier 0.8 –21.8 21.0 Graham Annesley Liberal  
Monaro   Labor Steve Whan 6.3 –8.3 2.0 John Barilaro National  
Mulgoa   Labor Diane Beamer 11.1 –23.2 12.0 Tanya Davies Liberal  
Newcastle   Labor Jodi McKay 1.2 –3.6 2.4 Tim Owen Liberal  
Oatley   Labor Kevin Greene 14.4 –14.9 0.5 Mark Coure Liberal  
Parramatta   Labor Tanya Gadiel 13.7 –25.8 12.1 Geoff Lee Liberal  
Port Macquarie   Independent Peter Besseling 28.2** –35.1 6.9 Leslie Williams National  
Riverstone   Labor John Aquilina 10.1 –30.3 20.2 Kevin Conolly Liberal  
Rockdale   Labor Frank Sartor 10.3 –13.9 3.6 John Flowers Liberal  
Smithfield   Labor Ninos Khoshaba 15.5 –20.3 4.8 Andrew Rohan Liberal  
Strathfield   Labor Virginia Judge 15.1 –19.3 4.3 Charles Casuscelli Liberal  
Swansea   Labor Robert Coombs 10.8 –11.9 1.1 Garry Edwards Liberal  
Tamworth   Independent Peter Draper 4.8 –12.5 7.8 Kevin Anderson National  
The Entrance   Labor Grant McBride 4.9 –17.3 12.5 Chris Spence Liberal  
Wollondilly   Labor Phil Costa 3.3 –18.0 14.7 Jai Rowell Liberal  
Wyong   Labor David Harris 6.9 –9.4 2.5 Darren Webber Liberal  

Background

New South Wales electorates by party before the election
New South Wales electorates by party after the election

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, were the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower house but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.

On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history.[7] The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich,[7] and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo.[7] Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Robert Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party margin of 54.5–45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith[8] was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history, until the 2013 Miranda by-election which eclipsed it with a 26-point two-party swing against the Liberal/National government.[9]

Key dates

Campaign

The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011[11] in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields.[12] Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs – Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.[13]

The Coalition had been leading in opinion polling for almost three years, and were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all-time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 35.9 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier.[14] At one point, Labor was widely predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result.[15] According to several pollsters, Labor was in danger of losing several seats where it had not been seriously threatened in decades, as well as several that it had held for a century or more.

Resulting parliament

The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house—in contrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats at Neville Wran's second "Wranslide" in 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the lowest for Labor in NSW Parliament in over a century, and the worst defeat that a sitting government in NSW has ever suffered. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene.[16] In the process, the Coalition took dozens of seats in areas considered Labor heartland, such as western Sydney and the Upper Hunter—some on swings of well over 10 per cent. The Liberals actually won 51 seats, enough for a majority in their own right—the first time the main non-Labor party in the state had achieved this since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945. Although O'Farrell thus had no need for the support of the Nationals, he opted to retain the Coalition.

In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition were required to pass legislation. The balance of power shifted from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both needed to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens opposed legislation.[4][5]

Retiring members

Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council did not renominate to contest the election, their term ended at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who confirmed their retirement were:

Legislative Assembly

Legislative Council

Labor (4)

Greens (1)

Polling

Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

 Better Premier ratings
Date Labor
Keneally		 Liberal
O'Farrell		 Uncommitted
2011 election – – –
21–24 March 2011 32% 48% 20%
9–11 March 2011 35% 48% 17%
Jan–Feb 2011 32% 47% 21%
Nov–Dec 2010 35% 40% 25%
Sep–Oct 2010 35% 42% 23%
Jul–Aug 2010 39% 39% 22%
May–Jun 2010 44% 36% 20%
Mar–Apr 2010 45% 30% 25%
Jan–Feb 2010 40% 31% 29%
Nov–Dec 2009 35% 34% 31%
Sep–Oct 2009 31%2 36% 33%
Jul–Aug 2009 32%2 33% 35%
May–Jun 2009 33%2 32% 35%
Mar–Apr 2009 33%2 31% 36%
Jan–Feb 2009 34%2 29% 37%
Nov–Dec 2008 30%2 33% 37%
Sep–Oct 2008 35%2 28% 37%
Jul–Aug 2008 32%1 39% 29%
May–Jun 2008 32%1 39% 29%
Mar–Apr 2008 36%1 33% 31%
Jan–Mar 2008 37%1 30% 33%
2007 election – – –
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
1 Morris Iemma, 2 Nathan Rees
Legislative Assembly opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
Date ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
2011 election 25.6% 38.6% 12.6% 10.3% 13.0% 35.8% 64.2%
21–24 March 2011 23% 41% 9% 12% 15% 35.9% 64.1%
9–11 March 2011 26% 43% 7% 11% 13% 37% 63%
Jan–Feb 2011 23% 40% 6% 17% 14% 38% 62%
Nov–Dec 2010 24% 40% 5% 15% 16% 39% 61%
Sep–Oct 2010 23% 41% 5% 17% 14% 37% 63%
Jul–Aug 2010 25% 41% 5% 14% 15% 39% 61%
May–Jun 2010 25% 41% 5% 16% 12% 39% 61%
Mar– Apr 2010 31% 37% 5% 14% 13% 45% 55%
Jan–Feb 2010 30% 39% 3% 12% 14% 43% 57%
Nov–Dec 2009 26% 39% 5% 17% 13% 41% 59%
Sep–Oct 2009 30% 36% 6% 12% 16% 45% 55%
Jul–Aug 2009 32% 37% 4% 14% 13% 46% 54%
May–Jun 2009 31% 36% 5% 14% 14% 45% 55%
Mar–Apr 2009 33% 36% 4% 13% 14% 47% 53%
Jan–Feb 2009 30% 38% 4% 15% 13% 44% 56%
Nov–Dec 2008 26% 38% 5% 14% 17% 41% 59%
Sep – Oct 2008 29% 38% 4% 11% 18% 44% 56%
Jul–Aug 2008 33% 36% 4% 13% 14% 48% 52%
May–Jun 2008 32% 36% 5% 13% 14% 48% 52%
Mar–Apr 2008 35% 35% 3% 14% 13% 51% 49%
Jan–Mar 2008 34% 34% 5% 14% 13% 50% 50%
2007 election 39.0% 26.9% 10.1% 9.0% 15.0% 52.3% 47.7%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper Endorsement
The Australian Liberal[17]
The Australian Financial Review Liberal
Newcastle Herald Liberal
The Daily Telegraph Liberal[18]
The Sydney Morning Herald Liberal[19]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Summary, NSW election 2011". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 27 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
  2. ↑ "Party totals, NSW election 2011". ABC. 29 July 2010. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
  3. ↑ "NSW State Election 2011". Electoral Commission of New South Wales. 26 March 2011. Retrieved 15 December 2012.
  4. 1 2 "Legislative Council, NSW election 2011". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 27 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
  5. 1 2 "Upper House shift from left to right". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 27 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
  6. ↑ "Pauline Hanson fails to win seat in NSW: SMH 12 April 2011". News.smh.com.au. 12 April 2011. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
  7. 1 2 3 "A turning point for the Libs". The Daily Telegraph. News Limited. 20 October 2008. Retrieved 20 May 2009.
  8. ↑ "Liar Paluzzano resigns from parliament". The Daily Telegraph. News Limited. AAP. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 8 May 2010.
  9. ↑ "Libs claim victory in Penrith". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. AAP. 19 June 2010. Retrieved 19 June 2010.
  10. ↑ "Writs of Elections" (PDF). Government Gazette. Government of New South Wales. 5 March 2011. Retrieved 24 March 2011.
  11. ↑ Nicholls, Sean (4 February 2011). "NSW election campaign launch: Labor beats Coalition to the punch". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
  12. ↑ Salusinszky, Imre (12 February 2011). "Labor election strategy already failing the test". The Australian. News Limited. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
  13. ↑ "Coalition kicks off NSW election campaign". Telegraph — News Ltd. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 25 March 2011.
  14. ↑ "Labor steels itself for disaster with day to go". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 25 March 2011.
  15. ↑ "NSW Labor may only win 13 seats: ABC PM 25 March 2011". Abc.net.au. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
  16. ↑ "Avoid scandals, O'Farrell tells his MPs". News.smh.com.au. 30 March 2011. Retrieved 16 April 2011.
  17. ↑ "NSW must emerge from Labor's heart of darkness". The Australian. News Limited. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  18. ↑ "It's time for a state cleanout". The Daily Telegraph. News Limited. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  19. ↑ "NSW is overdue for change and renewal". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. 25 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
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