New Hampshire Democratic primary, 2016

New Hampshire Democratic primary, 2016
New Hampshire
February 9, 2016 (2016-02-09)

 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 15 9
Popular vote 152,193 95,355
Percentage 60.14% 37.68%

New Hampshire results by county
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary took place on February 9. As per tradition, it was the first primary and second nominating contest overall to take place in the cycle. Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in the primary by a margin of more than 22% in the popular vote. Sanders claimed 15 delegates to Clinton's 9.[1] It was considered a major upset, as it made Bill Clinton's comeback in 1992 and Hillary Clinton's in 2008.

Debates and forums

December 2015 debate in Goffstown

On December 19, 2015, the Democratic Party held their third debate at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Hosted by "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir and Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz, it aired on ABC News.[2] Ahead of the debate, WMUR-TV's co-sponsorship had been revoked by the DNC due to a labor dispute. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley.

The topics covered during the debate included Sanders' campaign's breach of Clinton's campaign data, strategy for defeating ISIS, gun control, the issue of whether to depose President Assad of Syria, if Wall Street favored each candidate, stability in the Middle East enforced by dictators and whether regime change was necessary, and the role of the First Spouse.[3]

February 2016 forum in Derry

A fifth forum, a Town Hall event, was held on February 3, 2016, in Derry, New Hampshire. It aired on CNN.[4]

Lesser known candidates forum at Goffstown

One of the highlights of the campaign is when the nonrecognized candidates gather together to introduce themselves to the public at this event, which first was held in 1972.[5]

Due to the notorious glitter-bombing incident of the previous cycle, Vermin Supreme was pointedly dis-invited,[6] but showed up anyway, and made the national news. Eighteen people showed up: Jon Adams, Eric Elbot, Rocky De La Fuente, Mark Greenstein, Henry Hewes, William McGaughey, Edward O'Donnell, Graham Schwass, Sam Sloan, Edward Sonnino, Michael Steinberg and several others.

February 2016 debate in Durham

Unlike in previous years, initially only a single authorized debate was scheduled to be held in New Hampshire. Initially planned as an unsanctioned debate, a debate on February 4 in Durham, New Hampshire was however later confirmed by the DNC. Hosted by Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow, it was broadcast by NBC News. While Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley all confirmed their participation, O'Malley eventually came to suspend his campaign prior to the debate.

Commentators of the debate cited the elevated discourse between the candidates. There was discussion on the death penalty (federal versus state), money in politics, and assessing Iran, North Korea and Russia as threats to national security. Clinton demanded that Sanders explain his "artful smears" of Clinton receiving campaign donations. Sanders responded by critiquing the inherently "quid-pro-quo" nature of Wall Street campaign donations. The exchange between the two candidates was called by Eric Levitz one of the best 10-minute exchanges in the history of American political debates.[7]

Candidates

Bernie Sanders in Littleton, New Hampshire, on August 24, 2015
Bernie Sanders Campaign Field Office In Nashua, New Hampshire.
Hillary Clinton at the 2016 Democratic primary.

This is a list of the candidates[8] on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.

The following notable candidates have been listed in five major polls and participated in all authorized debates:

The following candidate withdrew from the race prior to New Hampshire, but remains on the ballot:

The following candidates have not been invited to any major debates or listed in national polls, but are notable enough to have Wikipedia articles written about them:

In addition to appearing on the New Hampshire primary ballot, the following candidates are on the primary ballot in one or more other state(s):

The following are not presently listed on the primary ballot in any state(s) other than New Hampshire:[18]

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results February 9, 2016 Bernie Sanders
60.1%
Hillary Clinton
37.7%
Others / Uncommitted
2.2%
American Research Group[19]
Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 408
February 6–7, 2016 Bernie Sanders
53%
Hillary Clinton
41%
Undecided
6%
University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey[20]
Margin of error: ± 5.38%
Sample size: 428
February 4–6, 2016 Bernie Sanders
57%
Hillary Clinton
40%
Others / Undecided
3%
University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey[21]
Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 442
January 29–31, 2016 Bernie Sanders
61%
Hillary Clinton
30%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Undecided 6%
CNN/WMUR[22]
Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 347
January 27–30, 2016 Bernie Sanders
57%
Hillary Clinton
34%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Other, Undecided, or Not Committed 9%
Emerson College[23]

Margin of error ± 5.2%
Sample Size: 350

January 25–26, 2016 Bernie Sanders
52%
Hillary Clinton
44%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Other 1%
American Research Group[24]

Margin of error ± 4%
Sample Size: 396

January 23–25, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%
Hillary Clinton
42%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Other 6%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[25]

Margin of error ± 4.9%
Sample Size: 408

January 20–24, 2016 Bernie Sanders
55%
Hillary Clinton
39%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other 5%
Fox News[26]

Margin of error ± 4.5%
Sample Size: 400

January 18–21, 2016 Bernie Sanders
56%
Hillary Clinton
34%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Other 7%
CBS News/YouGov[27]

Margin of error ± 6.2%
Sample Size:

January 18–21, 2016 Bernie Sanders
57%
Hillary Clinton
38%
Martin O'Malley
5%
No preference 0%
Suffolk University[28]

Margin of error –
Sample Size: 500

January 17–21, 2016 Bernie Sanders
50%
Hillary Clinton
41%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other/Undecided 7%
American Research Group[29]

Margin of error ± 4%
Sample Size: 600

January 15–18, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%
Hillary Clinton
43%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Undecided 5%
Gravis Marketing[30]

Margin of error ± 4.5%
Sample Size: 472

January 15–18, 2016 Bernie Sanders
46%
Hillary Clinton
43%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Undecided 8%
CNN and WMUR[31]

Margin of error ± 4.8%
Sample Size: 420

January 13–18, 2016 Bernie Sanders
60%
Hillary Clinton
33%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Undecided 6%
Monmouth University Poll[32]

Margin of error ± 4.8%
Sample Size: 413

January 7–10, 2016 Bernie Sanders
53%
Hillary Clinton
39%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Undecided 3%
Fox News[33]

Margin of error ± 5%
Sample Size: 386

January 4–7, 2016 Bernie Sanders
50%
Hillary Clinton
37%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Other 2%, None of the above 5%, Don't know 3%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 425

January 2–7, 2016 Bernie Sanders
50%
Hillary Clinton
46%
Martin O'Malley
1%

Results

Municipal results of the New Hampshire Democratic primaries, 2016.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton
  Not reported[lower-alpha 1]
New Hampshire Democratic primary, February 9, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Of total Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 152,193 60.14% 15 1 16
Hillary Clinton 95,355 37.68% 9 6 15
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 667 0.26%
Vermin Supreme 268 0.11%
David John Thistle 226 0.09%
Graham Schwass 143 0.06%
Steve Burke 108 0.04%
Rocky De La Fuente 96 0.04%
John Wolfe, Jr. 54 0.02%
Jon Adams 53 0.02%
Lloyd Thomas Kelso 46 0.02%
Keith Russell Judd 44 0.02%
Eric Elbot 36 0.01%
Star Locke 33 0.01%
William D. French 29 0.01%
Mark Stewart Greenstein 29 0.01%
Edward T. O'Donnell 26 0.01%
James Valentine 24 0.01%
Robert Lovitt 22 0.01%
Michael Steinberg 21 0.01%
William H. McGaughey, Jr. 19 0.01%
Henry Hewes 18 0.01%
Edward Sonnino 17 0.01%
Steven Roy Lipscomb 15 0.01%
Sam Sloan 15 0.01%
Brock C. Hutton 14 0.01%
Raymond Michael Moroz 8 0.00%
Richard Lyons Weil 8 0.00%
Write-ins 3,475 1.37%
Uncommitted N/A 0 1 1
Total 253,062 100% 24 8 32
Sources: The Green Papers New Hampshire Secretary of State

Results by county

Sanders won every county.[60]

County Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Belknap 35.7% 3,49061.3% 5,990
Carroll 36.0%3,230 63.1% 5,655
Cheshire 29.0% 5,166 70.1% 12,471
Coös35.0% 2,013 63.2% 3,637
Grafton 32.3% 6,918 66.6% 14,258
Hillsborough 41.3% 28,099 56.7% 38,646
Merrimack 39.8% 12,209 59.0% 18,076
Rockingham 41.6% 22,829 56.7% 31,080
Strafford 35.1% 8,801 63.2% 15,865
Sullivan 29.0% 2,497 68.5% 5,906

Analysis

Sanders scored a landslide 22-point routing in the New Hampshire primary, thanks to what The New York Times described as a "harness [of] working-class fury"[61] against the so-called "establishment" candidates like Hillary Clinton, in a state known for its rebellious electorate. Sanders' win was propelled by younger voters, whom he won 74-25, men whom he won 67-32, self-identified Independents whom he won 73-25, and white voters whom he won 61-37 and who comprised 91% of the Democratic electorate in the Granite State. According to exit polls, a 53-45 majority of voters thought Clinton was not honest or trustworthy, while 89% said Sanders was honest. 61% of voters said they were dissatisfied or angry about the federal government. Sanders swept all income levels and educational attainment levels in the Granite State, except those who made more than $200k per year.

Sanders swept all of the major cities, including Nashua, Dover, Concord, and Manchester. Sanders won along the seacoast 59-41, in the Manchester/Nashua area 54-44, in Concord/Ct. Valley 64-35, in the south 59-39, and in the north 65-33.[62]

Sanders' landslide victory was a clear regression for Clinton from 2008, when she had narrowly beaten Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary thanks to support from populous southern New Hampshire.

References

Notes
  1. The Associated Press did not report results from municipalities where there were five or fewer registered voters.[59]
Citations
  1. "last actual results from the 2016 New Hampshire primary". Green Papers. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  2. "Third Democratic Presidential Debate: 9 Moments That Mattered". ABC News. December 19, 2015. Retrieved December 20, 2015.
  3. Martin, Jonathan; Chozick, Amy (December 19, 2015). "In Democratic Debate, Hillary Clinton's Focus Is on G.O.P.". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 20, 2015.
  4. Metzler, Rebekah (January 31, 2016). "Dem candidates to attend New Hampshire town hall". CNN. Retrieved January 31, 2016.
  5. Weigel, David (January 25, 2016). "The existential pleasures of the Lesser Known Candidates presidential debate". The Washington Post.
  6. "'Lesser-known candidates' to gather for N.H. forum". The Boston Globe.
  7. "Clinton and Sanders Spar Over Campaign Donations". NYMag.
  8. William M. Gardner : Secretary of State. "Home - NHSOS". Sos.nh.gov. Retrieved December 23, 2015.
  9. Whittaker, Richard. "Presidential Candidates File in Texas: Clinton and Judd only Dems to file for president in Texas so far - News". The Austin Chronicle. Retrieved December 5, 2015.
  10. "Candidate Inquiry". Voterportal.sos.la.gov. Retrieved December 5, 2015.
  11. Sutherland, Paige (November 20, 2015). "Fired Up About the "Pony Economy"? Vermin Supreme Just Might Be Your Candidate". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
  12. Snyder, Brian (November 20, 2015). "U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Vermin Supreme files his declaration of candidacy to appear on the New Hampshire primary election ballot in Concord". Yahoo! News. Reuters. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
  13. "The Latest: Attorney files to run for Supreme Court post". Times Union. Retrieved November 12, 2015.
  14. William M. Gardner. "Home - NHSOS". Sos.nh.gov. Retrieved December 5, 2015.
  15. Federal Election Commission, "Details for Candidate ID : P60017100" (Valentine, James). Retrieved November 8, 2015.
  16. The Associated Press (November 5, 2015). "Democrat urging Constitution rewrite files to run for president in Arkansas", Arkansas Online.
  17. The Associated Press (November 5, 2015). "Fourth Democrat files to run for president in Arkansas", KATV.
  18. Office of New Hampshire Secretary of State
  19. "American Research Group (2/6-2/7 2016)". The Huffington Post.
  20. "UMass Lowell/7News Daily Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 6 of 8" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Lowell Centre for Public Opinion. February 2016. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  21. Dyck, Joshua J. (January 2016). "UMass Lowell/7News Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 1" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  22. Agiesta, Jennifer; Director, CNN Polling (2016-01-31). "Before Iowa, New Hampshire backs Trump, Sanders". CNN. Retrieved 2016-02-01.
  23. "NEW HAMPSHIRE – TRUMP COMFORTABLY AHEAD; BUSH SURGES TO SECOND, KASICH IN THIRD; SANDERS CRUISING AHEAD OF CLINTON" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. 27 January 2016. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  24. "New Hampshire". American Research Group, Inc. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  25. Myers, R. Kelly (25 January 2016). "Bernie Sanders has Re-Opened a Lead over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Race in New Hampshire" (PDF). Franklin Pierce University; Boston Herald. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  26. "Fox News Poll: Sanders up by 22 points in New Hampshire".
  27. "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerNew Hampshire".
  28. "Final January 2016 NH DEM Study" (PDF). Suffolk.edu. Retrieved 2016-01-23.
  29. 1 2 "New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary". Americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved 2016-01-19.
  30. "New Hampshire Polling Results" (PDF). Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  31. "CNN and WMUR Poll". CNN. Retrieved 2016-01-19.
  32. "New Hampshire: Sanders takes control" (PDF). monmouth.edu. Retrieved 2016-01-12.
  33. "Fox News Poll: New Hampshire presidential primary races". foxnews.com. Retrieved 2016-01-08.
  34. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker New Hampshire" (PDF).
  35. "Boston Herald poll article".
  36. "CNN and WMUR Poll" (PDF). CNN. Retrieved December 9, 2015.
  37. "PPP NH poll" (PDF).
  38. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa" (PDF).
  39. "Fox News Poll: Trump, Sanders lead respective primaries in New Hampshire". Fox News.
  40. "Current New Hampshire Polling". Gravis.
  41. "New Hampshire: Clinton Pulls Ahead of Sanders" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. 3 November 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  42. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker New Hampshire" (PDF).
  43. "No Groundswell for Biden in New Hampshire: Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm Poll".
  44. "Franklin Pierce-Herald poll: Sanders keeps lead over Clinton". bostonherald.com/.
  45. "Full results of Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll". BostonGlobe.com.
  46. "Latest NH Republican and Democratic Poll Results". Gravis.
  47. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll October 2015 New Hampshire Questionnaire". Retrieved 2015-10-04.
  48. "Hillary Clinton trails Sanders in New Hampshire, even without Joe Biden in the race". New Hampshire Results. CNN. Retrieved 2015-09-24.
  49. "WBUR Poll New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary" (PDF). WBUR. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  50. "New Hampshire: Sanders Leads Clinton by 7" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. 15 September 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2015.
  51. Will Jordan. "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump". YouGov.
  52. "NBC News/Marist Poll – September 2015 – New Hampshire Questionnaire". Retrieved 2015-09-06.
  53. "Trump Way Ahead in New Hampshire; Sanders Leads Clinton" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-08-25.
  54. "Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37". Retrieved 2015-08-11.
  55. "Clinton in Jeopardy of Losing New Hampshire to Sanders". New Hampshire Results. PR Newswire. Retrieved 2015-08-05.
  56. "Sanders keeping pace with Clinton in New Hampshire" (PDF). New Hampshire Results. WMUR. Retrieved 2015-08-04.
  57. "New Hampshire Results" (PDF). NBC News/Marist. Retrieved 2015-07-26.
  58. "WMUR Dem poll" (PDF). wmur.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  59. Mihalik, Lily; Anthony, Pesce; Ben, Welsh (February 10, 2016). "Live results from the 2016 New Hampshire primary". Los Angeles Times. Tribune Publishing. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  60. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/new-hampshire
  61. Healy, Patrick; Martin, Jonathan (2016-02-09). "Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Win in New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-10-18.
  62. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-18.
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