United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004
Arkansas
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 572,898 469,953
Percentage 54.3% 44.6%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there wasn't a lot of advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush, who won in 2000 with just over 50%. However, on election day Bush performed better than what polls showed.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Leans Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
  11. Zogby International: Tied
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,387,692.[3] Kerry raised $466,194.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were the Mississippi Valley and the state capital, Little Rock. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, who was the home son of Arkansas.

Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections.

Results

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004[7]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Dick Cheney 572,898 54.3% 6
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 469,953 44.6% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 6,171 0.6% 0
Independent Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,345 0.2% 0
Independent Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 2,083 0.2% 0
Independent David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 1,488 0.1% 0
Totals 1,054,945 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voter age) 50%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Arkansas 44.8% 3,110 54.5% 3,789 0.7% 47
Ashley 45.6% 3,881 53.7% 4,567 0.8% 64
Baxter 38.5% 7,129 60.1% 11,128 1.5% 273
Benton 30.5% 20,756 68.4% 46,571 1.2% 794
Boone 31.4% 4,640 66.3% 9,793 2.3% 344
Bradley 51.9% 2,206 47.3% 2,011 0.8% 32
Calhoun 40.8% 939 58.3% 1,340 0.9% 20
Carroll 39.7% 4,161 59.0% 6,184 1.3% 136
Chicot 62.9% 2,993 36.3% 1,725 0.8% 39
Clark 54.2% 4,990 45.0% 4,144 0.8% 77
Clay 53.5% 3,264 45.3% 2,759 1.2% 73
Cleburne 38.4% 4,517 60.4% 7,107 1.2% 137
Cleveland 41.5% 1,450 57.5% 2,009 1.1% 37
Columbia 41.5% 4,108 57.8% 5,729 0.7% 72
Conway 49.3% 3,982 49.6% 4,009 1.2% 93
Craighead 45.9% 13,665 53.1% 15,818 1.1% 318
Crawford 33.2% 6,764 65.6% 13,391 1.2% 246
Crittenden 54.1% 8,277 45.3% 6,930 0.6% 93
Cross 44.3% 3,135 54.6% 3,864 1.1% 75
Dallas 49.3% 1,671 50.2% 1,700 0.5% 17
Desha 61.4% 2,851 37.2% 1,729 1.4% 67
Drew 47.2% 2,952 52.2% 3,262 0.6% 35
Faulkner 39.6% 14,538 58.6% 21,514 1.7% 634
Franklin 41.3% 3,008 57.4% 4,181 1.4% 100
Fulton 47.8% 2,370 50.9% 2,522 1.3% 63
Garland 44.9% 18,040 54.1% 21,734 0.9% 380
Grant 37.3% 2,524 62.1% 4,205 0.6% 41
Greene 47.0% 6,564 51.9% 7,237 1.1% 154
Hempstead 51.2% 3,817 48.0% 3,580 0.7% 55
Hot Spring 48.9% 5,901 49.4% 5,960 1.7% 204
Howard 43.8% 2,166 55.4% 2,736 0.8% 41
Independence 41.8% 5,443 57.1% 7,430 1.1% 138
Izard 47.1% 2,586 51.6% 2,833 1.3% 74
Jackson 56.5% 3,515 42.2% 2,624 1.3% 80
Jefferson 64.5% 19,675 33.5% 10,218 2.0% 600
Johnson 45.0% 3,622 53.6% 4,311 1.4% 111
Lafayette 49.1% 1,567 50.3% 1,604 0.6% 20
Lawrence 53.6% 3,544 44.6% 2,951 1.8% 120
Lee 62.5% 2,548 36.6% 1,492 1.0% 40
Lincoln 52.3% 2,149 46.8% 1,921 0.9% 39
Little River 50.6% 2,677 48.6% 2,575 0.8% 42
Logan 39.3% 3,361 59.4% 5,076 1.3% 114
Lonoke 33.8% 7,454 65.4% 14,398 0.8% 178
Madison 37.9% 2,421 60.7% 3,873 1.4% 90
Marion 37.9% 2,602 60.1% 4,127 2.0% 138
Miller 41.8% 6,139 57.6% 8,448 0.6% 91
Mississippi 53.6% 7,593 43.2% 6,121 3.1% 439
Monroe 55.9% 2,049 43.3% 1,586 0.9% 32
Montgomery 38.5% 1,524 59.8% 2,367 1.7% 67
Nevada 48.7% 1,694 50.4% 1,752 0.9% 31
Newton 34.4% 1,506 63.5% 2,779 2.1% 93
Ouachita 48.7% 5,188 50.2% 5,345 1.1% 117
Perry 43.4% 1,921 55.0% 2,435 1.7% 75
Phillips 63.6% 5,642 35.6% 3,161 0.7% 65
Pike 38.9% 1,310 59.8% 2,013 1.3% 44
Poinsett 52.7% 4,069 46.0% 3,555 1.3% 99
Polk 31.7% 2,473 66.6% 5,192 1.7% 134
Pope 34.0% 7,100 65.1% 13,614 0.9% 188
Prairie 43.1% 1,562 56.0% 2,030 0.9% 32
Pulaski 55.0% 84,532 44.2% 67,903 0.8% 1,185
Randolph 51.2% 3,412 47.4% 3,158 1.5% 97
St. Francis 59.3% 5,684 39.8% 3,815 0.9% 89
Saline 35.9% 14,153 63.1% 24,864 0.9% 359
Scott 36.5% 1,473 62.3% 2,514 1.3% 51
Searcy 34.3% 1,370 64.3% 2,565 1.4% 57
Sebastian 37.3% 16,479 61.8% 27,303 1.0% 429
Sevier 44.2% 2,035 54.7% 2,516 1.1% 50
Sharp 43.7% 3,265 54.8% 4,097 1.4% 108
Stone 40.6% 2,255 57.5% 3,188 1.9% 106
Union 39.7% 7,071 58.9% 10,502 1.5% 259
Van Buren 44.9% 3,310 54.1% 3,988 1.0% 76
Washington 43.1% 27,597 55.7% 35,726 1.2% 780
White 34.5% 9,129 64.3% 17,001 1.1% 295
Woodruff 65.2% 1,972 33.7% 1,021 1.1% 33
Yell 43.7% 2,913 55.2% 3,678 1.0% 68

By congressional district

Bush won all 4 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 52% 47% Marion Berry
2nd 51% 48% Vic Snyder
3rd 62% 36% John Boozman
4th 51% 48% Mike Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney:

  1. Bobbi Dodge
  2. Gay White
  3. Ida Fineburg
  4. John Felts
  5. Jim Davis
  6. Martha McCaskill

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=5
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html
  7. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/AR/
  8. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

See also

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