Population growth

In biology, population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population.

Global human population growth amounts to around 75 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.4 billion by mid-2030, and 9.6 billion by mid-2050. Many nations with rapid population growth have low standards of living, whereas many nations with low rates of population growth have high standards of living.[1]

Population[2]
Years Passed Year Billion
- 1800 1
127 1927 2
33 1960 3
14 1974 4
13 1987 5
12 1999 6
12 2011 7
14 2025* 8
18 2043* 9
40 2083* 10
* UNFPA
United Nations Population Fund
estimate 31.10.2011

Population growth rate

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.[3]

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Human population growth rate

Main article: Total fertility rate
A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman, according to the CIA World Factbook's 2016 data.

  7–8 children
  6–7 children

  5–6 children
  4–5 children

  3–4 children
  2–3 children

  1–2 children
  0–1 children

Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.
Growth rate of world population (1950–2050).

In 2009, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[4] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.[5] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity[6] made possible by the Green Revolution.

The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2009, the human population increased by 74.6 million.[4] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in poverty-stricken countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.[7]

In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.[8] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005; it now has the highest standard of living in the world.[9]

The United Nations Population Division projects world population to peak at over 10 billion at the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline.[10]

Growth by country

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.[11] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).[11]

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
Rank Country Population
2010
Population
1990
Growth (%)
1990–2010
  World 6,895,889,000 5,306,425,000 30.0%
1  China 1,341,335,000 1,145,195,000 17.1%
2  India 1,224,614,000 873,785,000 40.2%
3  United States 310,384,000 253,339,000 22.5%
4  Indonesia 239,871,000 184,346,000 30.1%
5  Brazil 194,946,000 149,650,000 30.3%
6  Pakistan 173,593,000 111,845,000 55.3%
7  Nigeria 158,423,000 97,552,000 62.4%
8  Bangladesh 148,692,000 105,256,000 41.3%
9  Russia 142,958,000 148,244,000 -3.6%
10  Japan 128,057,000 122,251,000 4.7%
Example nation 1967 population 1990 population 1994 population 2002 population 2008 population Life expectancy in years (2008) Total population growth from 1960s to 2007- 2011
Eritrea* N/A* N/A* 3,437,000[12] 4,298,269 5,673,520[13] 61[14][14]2,236,520
Ethiopia* 23,457,000*[15]50,974,000* [16] 54,939,000[12] 67,673,031(2003) 79,221,000[17] 55[14] 55,764,000
Sudan14,355,000†[15] 25,204,000† [16] 27,361,000†[12] 38,114,160 (2003)† 42,272,000†[18] 50†[14] 27,917,000
Chad 3,410,000[15] 5,679,000[16] 6,183,000[12] 9,253,493(2003) 10,329,208 (2009)[19] 47[14] 6,919,205
Niger3,546,000[15]7,732,000[16] 8,846,000[12] 10,790,352 (2001) 15,306,252 (2009)[20] 44[14] 11,760,252
Nigeria61,450,000[15]88,500,000[16] 108,467,000[12] 129,934,911158,259,000[21] 47[14] 96,809,000
Mali4,745,000[15]8,156,000,[16] 10,462,000[12]11,340,48014,517,176(2010).[22] 50[14] 9,772,176
Mauritania 1,050,000[15] 2,025,000 [16] 2,211,000[12] 2,667,859 (2003) 3,291,000 (2009)[19] 54[14] 2,241,000
Senegal3,607,000[15]7,327,000[16] 8,102,000[12] 9,967,21513,711,597 (2009)[23] 57[14] 10,104,597
Gambia343,000[15]861,000[16] 1,081,000[12] 1,367,124 (2000)1,705,000[21] 55[14] 1,362,000
Algeria 11,833,126 (1966)[15] 25,012,000[16] 27,325,000 [12] 32,818,500 (2003) 34,895,000[17][24] 74[14] 23,061,874
The DRC/Zaire 16,353,000[15] 35,562,000[16] 42,552,000[12] 55,225,478 (2003) 70,916,439 [17][25] 54[14] 54,563,439
Egypt 30,083,419 (1966)[15] 53,153,000[16] 58,326,000[12] 70,712,345 (2003) 79,089,650 [17][26][26] 72[14] 49,006,231
Réunion (French colony/overseas department)418,000[15] N/A[16] N/A[12] 720,934 (2003) 827,000 (2009) [24] N/A[14] 409,000
The Falkland Islands (UK Territory)2,500[15] N/A[16] N/A[12] 2,967 (2003) 3,140(2010)[19] N/A[14] 640
Chile8,935,500[15]13,173,000[16] 13,994,000[12] 15,116,435 17,224,200 (2011) 77[14] 8,288,700
Colombia19,191,000[15] 32,987,000[16] 34,520,000[12] 41,088,227 45,925,397(2010)[27] 73[14] 26,734,397
Brazil85,655,000[15]150,368,000[16] 153,725,000[12] 174,468,575 (2000) 190,732,694(2010) [28] 72[14] 105,077,694
Mexico45,671,000[15] 86,154,000[16] 93,008,000[12] 103,400,165 (2000)112,322,757(2010)[29] 76[14] 66,651,757
Fiji 476,727 (1966)[15] 765,000[16] 771,000[12] 844,330 (2001) 849,000[24] (2010) 70[14] 372,273
Nauru6,050 (1966)[15]10,000[16] N/A[12] 12,329 9,322 (2011)[30] N/A[14] 3,272
Jamaica 1,876,000[15] 2,420,000[16] 2,429,000[12] 2,695,867 (2003) 2,847,232[31](2010) 74[14] 971,232
Australia 11,540,764 (1964)[15] 17,086,000[16] 17,843,000[12] 19,546,792 (2003)24,420,782[32] (2010) 82[14] 10,066,508
Albania 1,965,500 (1964)[15] 3,250,000[16] 3,414,000[12] 3,510,484 2,986,952 (July 2010 est.)[19][33] (2010) 78[14]1,021,452
Poland31,944,000[15]38,180,000[16] 38,554,000[12] 38,626,349 (2001)38,192,000(2010)[34] 75[14] 6,248,000
Hungary10,212,000[15]10,553,000[16] 10,261,000[12] 10,106,017 9,979,000(2010)[35] 73[14] -142,000
Bulgaria8,226,564 (1965)[15]8,980,000[16] 8,443,000[12] 7,707,495(2000)7,351,234 (2011)[36] 73[14] -875,330
United Kingdom 55,068,000 (1966)[15] 57,411,000[16] 58,091,000[12] 58,789,194 62,008,048 (2010)[37] 79[14] 7,020,048
Republic of Ireland 2,884,002 (1966)[15] 3,503,000[16] 3,571,000[12] 3,840,838 (2000) 4,470,700 [38] (2010) 78[14] 1,586,698
The PRC/China720,000,000[15] 1,139,060,000[16] 1,208,841,000[12] 1,286,975,468 (2004) 1,339,724,852(2010)[39] 73[14] 619,724,852
Japan‡ 98,274,961 (1965)[15]123,537,000[16] 124,961,000[12] 127,333,002127,420,000 (2010)[40] 82[14] 28,123,865
Ryukyu Islands (Once occupied by the United States)‡ 934,176 (1965)[15]N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
India#511,115,000[15]843,931,000[16] 918,570,000[12] 1,028,610,328 (2001) 1,210,193,422(2011)[41] 69[14] 699,078,422
Singapore1,956,000 (1967)[15]3,003,000 (1990) [16] 2,930,000 (1994)[12] 4,452,732 (2002)5,076,700(2010)[24] 82 (2008)[14]3,120,700
Sikkim#183,000 (1967)[15]N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Monaco 24,000 (1967)[15]29,000 (1990) [16] N/A (1994)[12] 31,842 (2000)35,586[42] (2010) (2008)[14]1,586
Greece 8,716,000 (1967)[15]10,123,000 (1990) [16] 10,426,000 (1994)[12] 10,964,020(2001)[43] 11,305,118(2011)[44] N/A (2008)[14] 2,589,118
Faroe Islands (Danish dependency)38,000 (1967)[15]N/A(1990) [16] N/A(1994)[12] 46,345 (2000)48,917(2010) [45] N/A (2008)[14]18,917
Liechtenstein20,000 (1967)[15]29,000 (1990) [16] N/A (1994)[12] 33,307(2000) 35,789(2009)[46] (2008)[14]15,789
South Korea29,207,856 (1966)[15]42,793,000 (1990) [16] 44,453,000 (1994)[12] 48,324,000 (2003)48,875,000(2010) [47] (2008)[14]19,667,144
North Korea12,700,000 (1967)[15]21,773,000 (1990) [16] 23,483,000 (1994)[12] 22,224,195 (2002) 24,051,218(2010)[48] (2008)[14]11,351,218
Brunei107,200 (1967)[15] 266,000(1990) [16] 280,000 (1994)[12] 332,844 (2001)401,890(2011)[19] 76(2008)[14]306,609
Malaysia10,671,000 (1967)[15]17,861,000 (1990) [16] 19,489,000 (1994)[12] 21,793,293(2002)27,565,821(2010)[49] (2008)[14]16,894,821
Thailand32,680,000 (1967)[15]57,196,000 (1990) [16] 59,396,000 (1994)[12] 60,606,947(2000)[50]63,878,267(2011)[51] (2008)[14] 31,198,267
Lebanon2,520,000 (1967)[15]2,701,000 (1990) [16] 2,915,000 (1994)[12] 3,727,703 [52] (2003)4,224,000[53](2009) - (2008)[14]
Syria5,600,000 (1967)[15]12,116,000 (1990) [16] 13,844,000 (1994)[12] 17,585,540 (2003)22,457,763(2011)[54] -(2008)[14]
Bahrain182,00 (1967)[15]503,000 (1990) [16] 549,000 (1994)[12] 667,238 (2003)1,234,596 [55] (2010) 75(2008)[14]
Sri Lanka 11,741,000 (1967)[15]16,993,000 (1990) [16] 17,685,000 (1994)[12] 19,607,519 (2002)20,238,000[24] (2009) - (2008)[14]
Switzerland6,050,000 (1967)[15]6.712,000 (1990) [16] 6,994,000 (1994)[12] 7,261,200 (2002)7,866,500[56] (2010) - (2008)[14]
Luxembourg335,000 (1967)[15]381,000 (1990) [16] 401,000 (1994)[12] 439,539 (2001) 511,840(2011)[57] -(2008)[14]
Romania19,105,056 (1966)[15]23,200,000 (1990) [16] 22,736,000 (1994)[12] 21,680,974 (2002)21,466,174[58] (2011) - (2008)[14]
Niuē (New Zealand colony)1,900 (1966)[15]N/A (1990) [16] N/A (1994)[12] 2,134 (2002)1,398(2009)[59] N/A (2008)[14] -502
Tokelau (New Zealand colony)5,194 (1966)[15]N/A (1990) [16] N/A (1994)[12] 1,445(2001)1,416(2009) N/A (2008)[14] -3,778
Jamaica1,876,000 (1967)[15] 2,420,000 (1990) [16] 2,429,000 (1994)[12] 2,695,867 (2003) 2,847,232[31](2010) 74 (2008)[14]971,232
Argentina32,031,000 (1967)[15] 32,322,000(1990) [16] 34,180,000 (1994)[12] 37,812,817 (2002)40,091,359 (2010) 74 (2008)[14]8,060,359
France49,890,660 (1967)[15] 56,440,000(1990) [16] 57,747,000 (1994)[12] 59,551,000 (2001)63,136,180(2011)[60] 81 (2008)[14]
Italy52,334,000(1967)[15]57,662,000 (1990) [16] 57,193,000 (1994)[12] 56,995,744 (2002)60,605,053[61] (2011) 80 (2008)[14]
Mauritius774,000 (1967)[15] 1,075,000(1990) [16] 1,104,000(1994)[12] 1,179,137 (2000) 1,288,000 (2009)[24] 75 (2008)[14]514,000
Guatemala4,717,000 (1967)[15]9,197,000 (1990) [16] 10,322,000 (1994)[12] 12,974,361 (2000)13,276,517 (2009) 70 (2008)[14]8,559,517
Cuba8,033,000 (1967)[15]10,609,000 (1990) [16] 10,960,000 (1994)[12] 11,177,743 (2002) 11,239,363(2009)[62] 77 (2008)[14]
Barbados246,000 (1967)[15]255,000 (1990) [16] 261,000 (1994)[12] 250,012 (2001) 284,589(2010)[19] 73 (2008)[14]18,589
Samoa131,377 (1967)[15]164,000 (1990) [16] 164,000 (1994)[12] 178,173 (2003) 179,000(2009)[24] N/A (2008)[14]
Sweden 7,765,981 (1967)[15]8,559,000 (1990) [16] 8,794,000 (1994)[12] 8,920,705 (2002) 9,354,462 (2009) 81 (2008)[14]
Finland 4,664,000 (1967)[15]4,986,000 (1990) [16] 5,095,000 (1994)[12] 5,175,783 (2002)5,374,781 (2010) N/A (2008)[14]
Portugal 9,440,000 (1967)[15]10,525,000 (1990) [16] 9,830,000 (1994)[12] 10,355,824 (2001)10,647,763[63](2011) N/A (2008)[14]
Austria 7,323,981 (1967)[15]7,712,000 (1990) [16] 8,031,000 (1994)[12] 8,032,926 (2001)8,404,252 (2011) N/A (2008)[14]
Libya 1,738,000 (1967)[15]4,545,000 (1990) [16] 5,225,000(1994)[12] 5,499,074 (2002)6,420,000 (2009)[24] 77 (2008)[14]
Peru 12,385,000 (1967)[15]21,550,000 (1990) [16] 23,080,000(1994)[12] 27,949,639 (2002)29,496,000(2010) 70 (2008)[14]
Guinea Bissau 528,000 (1967)[15]965,000 (1990) [16] 1,050,000 (1994)[12] 1,345,479 (2002) 1,647,000[24](2009) 48 (2008)[14]
Angola 5,203,066 (1967)[15]10,020,000 (1990) [16] 10,674,000 (1994)[12] 10,766,500(2003) 18,498,000[24][64](2009) (38 2008)[14]
Equatorial Guinea 277,000 (1967)[15]348,000 (1990) [16] 389,000 (1994)[12] 474,214 (2000)676,000(2009)[24]61 (2008)[14]
Benin 2,505,000 (1967)[15]4,736,000 (1990) [16] 5,246,000(1994)[12] 8,500,500 (2002)8,791,832 (2009)59 (2008)[14]
Laos 2,770,000 (1967)[15]4,139,000 (1990) [16] 4,742,000 (1994)[12] 5,635,967 (2002)6,800,000[65] (2011) 56(2008)[14]
Nepal 10,500,000 (1967)[15]18,961,000 (1990) [16] 21,360,000 (1994)[12] 25,284,463 (2002)29,331,000[24] (2009) (2008)[14]
Iran 25,781,090 (1966)[15]54,608,000(1990) [16] 59,778,000(1994)[12] 66,622,704 (2002)75,330,000 (2010) [41] 71 (2008)[14]
Canada 20,014,880 (1966)[15] 26,603,000(1990) [16] 29,248,000(1994)[12] 31,081,900 (2001)32,623,490(2011)[66]81 (2008)[14]
United States 199,118,000 (1967)[15] 249,995,000(1990) [16] 260,650,00(1994)[12] 281,421,906 (2000)308,745,538(2010)[67] 78(2008)[14]
Uganda 7,931,000 (1967)[15]18,795,000 (1990) [16] 20,621,000(1994)[12] 24,227,297 (2002)32,369,558 (2009)52 (2008)[14]
Notes
* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991.
Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011.
Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972.
# India and Sikkim merged in 1975.
Population growth 1990–2012 (%)[68]
Africa 73.3%
Middle East 68.2%
Asia (excl. China) 42.8%
China 19.0%
OECD Americas 27.9%
Non-OECD Americas 36.6%
OECD Europe 11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania 11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia -0.8%
Thousands of scooters make their way through the city of Hồ Chí Minh, Vietnam.

Into the future

Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE.
The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.

According to the UN's 2010 revision to its population projections, world population is projected to peak at 10.1 billion in 2100 compared to 7 billion in 2011.[69] A 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division projected that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[70] However, some experts dispute the UN's figures and have argued that birth rates will fall below replacement rate in the 2020s. According to their projections, population growth will be only sustained till the 2040s by rising longevity, but will peak below 9 bn by 2050.[10]

See also

References

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