Evan McMullin presidential campaign, 2016

Evan McMullin for President
Campaign U.S. presidential election, 2016
Candidate Evan McMullin
Former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference
Mindy Finn
Businesswoman, political consultant
Affiliation Independent
Status

Announced: August 8, 2016

Lost election: November 8, 2016
Headquarters 770 E South Temple
Salt Lake City, Utah 84102[1]
Receipts US$1,032,757 [2](as of 10/19/16)
Website
www.evanmcmullin.com
McMullin campaigning in Provo.

The 2016 presidential campaign of Evan McMullin was announced on August 8, 2016. Evan McMullin, the former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference and a former CIA operations officer, ran as an independent candidate.[3]

Background

The controversial candidacy of Donald Trump for the Republican Party nomination caused the creation of the Stop Trump movement, which sought to stop his nomination or find a candidate to oppose him.[4] After months of unsuccessful searching, Evan McMullin decided to run as a conservative alternative candidate based on Trump's divisive comments on a variety of issues, calling him a potential threat to the Republic.[5]

Campaign

McMullin announced his presidential candidacy in a letter on his website on August 8, 2016, calling himself a conservative alternative to Republican nominee Donald Trump.[5][6]

On October 6, McMullin announced that Mindy Finn would be his running mate.[7] Finn did not appear on most ballots with McMullin; instead, paper candidate Nathan Johnson of San Diego, California was listed as his running mate. McMullin had not chosen a running mate at the time he filed for ballot access in most states and used Johnson, a personal friend of his, as a name on the ballot.[8][9]

Following the release of crude recordings by Donald Trump on October 7, McMullin surged in the polls in Utah—tying statistically with Trump and Hillary Clinton at 22%, 26%, and 26%, respectively, with Libertarian Gary Johnson also performing strongly at 14%.[10] Further strong polling in Utah, in some cases showing McMullin at or near the lead, led to FiveThirtyEight calling him the "third-most likely person to be the next president of the United States" as of October 13.[11] An Emerson College poll later that month showed McMullin leading Utah by four points, with 31% of the vote, Trump at 27%, and Clinton at 24%.[12] McMullin's popularity in Utah - and Trump's unpopularity - appears owing to an unusual shift of Mormons away from the Republican candidate.[13] If McMullin succeeds in winning Utah or any other state, it will mark the first time since the 1968 presidential campaign of George Wallace that a candidate not nominated by the Democratic or Republican parties won a state and claimed its electoral votes.[14]

While McMullin was not on enough state ballots to win an outright majority in the Electoral College (barring carrying other states by write-in), had he carried any state he could theoretically have prevented any candidate from amassing the 270 votes necessary to win the presidency. In that event, the United States House of Representatives would meet to elect the President, and would be bound to choose from the top three presidential candidates in terms of electoral votes. In this event, barring another third-party candidate taking more electoral votes or an organized bloc of faithless electors larger than McMullin's choosing another candidate, the House would presumably have been bound to choose between Clinton, Trump and McMullin.

Although McMullin ran as an independent candidate in most states, in Minnesota he was the presidential nominee of the Independence Party of Minnesota.[15]

Ballot status

Ballot status in the fifty states and D.C.
  On ballot
  Write-in access
  No ballot access

Ballot access: 84 electoral votes in Arkansas,[16] Colorado,[17] Idaho,[18] Iowa,[19] Kentucky,[20] Louisiana,[21] Minnesota,[22] New Mexico,[23] South Carolina,[24] Utah,[25] Virginia[26]

Write-in: 366 electoral votes in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Washington, Washington, D.C., West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming[27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]

Endorsements

Polls

In late August 2016, polling nationwide and in most states placed McMullin in the 1-2% range.[36][37] Late October polls in Idaho showed McMullin with about 10% of the vote,[38] while during the same period in Utah polls showed him with between 20% and 30% of the vote.[39] In one Utah poll conducted by Emerson College in late October, he was leading both Trump and Clinton with 31% compared to 27% and 24% respectively.[12]

Results

On Election Day, McMullin took the fifth-largest number of votes nationally with slightly over 600,000 votes, not including undetermined write-in votes.[40] His biggest percentage total came in his home state of Utah, where he had 21% in a third-place finish.[41] McMullin took more Utah votes than Gary Johnson, who also had his campaign headquarters in Utah. He finished over 350,000 votes ahead of the Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle but over 800,000 less than 4th-place finisher Jill Stein.

References

  1. ↑ "National Headquarters Launch Party". Evan McMullin for President. Retrieved September 6, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Details for Candidate ID: P60022654". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. 2016. Retrieved November 4, 2016.
  3. ↑ "Anti-Trump Republican Evan McMullin to launch independent bid for presidency". Politico. Retrieved August 8, 2016.
  4. ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (March 18, 2016). "Anti-Trump forces contemplate the end". Politico. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  5. 1 2 Walshe, Shushannah (August 8, 2016). "Former CIA Officer Evan McMullin Launches Independent Presidential Bid". ABC News. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  6. ↑ "Independent Candidate Evan McMullin Says He's Not Responsible If Trump Loses". MyCentralOregon.com. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  7. ↑ Walshe, Shushannah (October 6, 2016). "Presidential Candidate Evan McMullin Picks Mindy Finn as Running Mate". ABC News. Retrieved October 6, 2016.
  8. ↑ "Independent Candidate Inundated With Mystery Running Mate Questions". Morning Edition. NPR. September 8, 2016. Retrieved September 12, 2016.
  9. ↑ Strauss, Daniel. "Whoops: Independent candidate appears to have accidentally picked a running mate". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2016.
  10. ↑ "News roundup: Trump-Clinton-McMullin statistically tied in new Utah poll". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved October 12, 2016.
  11. ↑ Morris, Benjamin (October 13, 2016). "How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  12. 1 2 "Emerson College Polls: Utah breaking for third-party candidate McMullin. Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on" (PDF) (Press release). Boston, Massachusetts: Emerson College Polling Society, Department of Communication Studies, Emerson College. October 19, 2016. Retrieved October 22, 2016.
  13. ↑ Bailey, Sarah Pulliam (26 October 2016). "Why Donald Trump could lose red Utah: Mormon America has found another candidate.". Washington Post. Retrieved 27 October 2016.
  14. ↑ Jack Healy, Evan McMullin's Moonshot White House Bid Has Utah's Attention, New York Times (October 14, 2016): "No candidate outside a major party has won a state since George Wallace in 1968..."
  15. ↑ Hellmann, Jessie (August 14, 2016). "Minnesota party picks McMullin as presidential nominee". The Hill. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  16. ↑ "Better for America Petition in Arkansas is Valid". ballot-access.org.
  17. ↑ "Independent candidate Evan McMullin gets on first state ballot". The Hill. August 11, 2016. Retrieved August 28, 2016.
  18. ↑ Sande, Racehl (August 23, 2016). "Independent Presidential Candidate Evan McMullin on Idaho Ballot". East Idaho News. Retrieved August 24, 2016.
  19. ↑ "Evan McMullin, Independent Candidate for President, Makes Ballot in Iowa". Heat Street. August 17, 2016.
  20. ↑ Winger, Richard (September 10, 2016). "Kentucky Secretary of State Says Evan McMullin and Rocky De La Fuente Petitions are Valid". Ballot-access.org. Retrieved September 10, 2016.
  21. ↑ Kelly, Caroline (August 19, 2016). "McMullin qualifies for Iowa, Louisiana ballots". Politico. Retrieved August 20, 2016.
  22. ↑ "Minn. Secretary of State Candidate Filings, U.S. President & Vice-President". Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  23. ↑ "New Mexico ballot to include alternative to Trump, Clinton". Desert News. September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 12, 2016.
  24. ↑ Winger, Richard (September 7, 2016). "South Carolina Independence Party Nominates Evan McMullin for President". Ballot Access News. Retrieved September 7, 2016.
  25. ↑ Strauss, Daniel (August 15, 2016). "Never Trump conservative candidate qualifies for Utah presidential ballot". Politico. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  26. ↑ Strauss, Daniel (September 2, 2016). "Never Trump conservative McMullin makes Virginia ballot". Politico. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
  27. ↑ McMullin, Evan. "34 States and Counting". Evan McMullin for President. Rumpf, Sarah. Retrieved October 2, 2016.
  28. ↑ "Arizona Secretary of State election Information". Arizona Secretary of State.
  29. ↑ "California 2016 General Election". thegreenpapers.com. 2016. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Delaware Write-In Candidates 2016 General" (PDF). Delaware State Elections.
  31. ↑ "New York Has Approximately 30 Declared Write-in Presidential Candidates; List Still Isn't Final". ballot-access.org. Ballot Access News. October 20, 2016. Retrieved 2016-10-20.
  32. ↑ "Six Write-in Presidential Candidates File to Have North Dakota Write-ins Counted". ballot-access.org. Ballot Access News. October 20, 2016. Retrieved 2016-10-20.
  33. ↑ "Texas Certifies McMullin as Write-In Candidate for President". Texas Tribune. September 16, 2016. Retrieved September 16, 2016.
  34. ↑ "Official List of Write-In Candidates for the 2016 General Election" (PDF). sos.wa.gov. Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved 2016-10-18.
  35. ↑ "Commit to vote for Evan McMullin on November 8". Evan McMullin for President. Retrieved 2016-11-01.
  36. ↑ "Clinton National Lead Steady". Public Policy Polling. August 30, 2016. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
  37. ↑ "Presidential Race Up for Grabs in Florida". Public Policy Polling. September 7, 2016. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  38. ↑ "Emerson College Poll: Idaho Shows "Mormon Corridor" is Closed to Trump. GOP Incumbent Mike Crapo Has a 33-Point Lead in the Senate Race" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Real Clear Politics. October 25, 2016. Retrieved October 26, 2016.
  39. ↑ "Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin". RealClearPolitics. October 28, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  40. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php
  41. ↑ http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president
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