Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012

25 March 2012

All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls
Registered	6,392,620 2.6%
Turnout	3,885,137 (60.8%) 11.9 pp
	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Javier Arenas	José Antonio Griñán	Diego Valderas
Party	PP–A	PSOE–A	IULV–CA
Leader since	18 April 2004	23 April 2009	10 October 2000
Leader's seat	Almería	Seville	Huelva
Last election	47 seats, 38.5%	56 seats, 48.4%	6 seats, 7.1%
Seats won	50	47	12
Seat change	3	9	6
Popular vote	1,570,833	1,527,923	438,372
Percentage	40.7%	39.6%	11.3%
Swing	2.2 pp	8.8 pp	4.2 pp

Most voted party by province.

PP–A

PSOE–A

President before election

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE–A

Elected President

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE–A

The 2012 Andalusian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Asturias.

Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP–A) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national Mariano Rajoy's government since coming to power in December 2011;^[1] Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March.^[2]^[3] Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to held the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election—the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.^[4]

Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP–A and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling far short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.^[5]

Electoral system

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected in 8 multi-member districts, corresponding to Andalusia's eight provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 8 seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations, on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed 2 times those of any other. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Almeria (12), Cadiz (15), Cordoba (12), Granada (13), Huelva (11), Jaen (11), Malaga (17) and Seville (18).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[6]^[7]

Background

Date

Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for 4^[8] or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election.^[9]

This has been the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian parliamentary election has not been held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011.

2011 general election

Main article: Spanish general election, 2011

The 2011 general election resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, which won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left would keep its 6 seats on the projections while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30-year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party being in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.^[10]

Opinion polling

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	UPyD	Oth.	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source						Oth.	Lead
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	39.6	40.7	11.3	2.5	3.4	2.6	1.1
25 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	39.2	42.0	9.9			8.9	2.8
Exit polls
19 Mar	GAD3	38.1	46.7	8.1	2.1	2.7	2.3	8.6
12–16 Mar	UJA	36.8	42.9	10.8	2.7	3.6	3.2	6.1
12–15 Mar	Sigma-2	36.0	45.8	8.9	2.9	3.8	2.6	9.8
6–15 Mar	Metroscopia	34.4	47.3	8.8	2.7	3.2	3.6	12.9
1–15 Mar	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 1]}	35.7	45.5	9.2		4.2	5.4	9.8
12–13 Mar	Opinión 2000	36.0	46.7	8.8	2.8	4.1	1.6	10.7
7–12 Mar	IMC^{[lower-alpha 1]}	35.2	46.5	8.6	1.8	4.6	3.3	11.3
5–12 Mar	Low-Cost	37.2	45.2	8.5			9.1	8.0
5–8 Mar	GAD3	36.8	46.2	9.2	2.4	2.9	2.5	9.4
20 Feb–6 Mar	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 1]}	35.3	45.2	9.8		4.3	5.4	9.9
13–29 Feb	Commentia	36.9	45.2	8.4	2.3	3.7	3.5	8.3
15–27 Feb	CIS	37.7	44.9	9.8	2.6	2.6	2.4	7.2
22–24 Feb	Sigma-2	36.3	45.0	9.3	2.4	4.2	2.8	8.7
6–22 Feb	GESPA	37.2	46.7	7.6	2.2	3.9	2.4	9.5
8–16 Feb	IMC^{[lower-alpha 1]}	35.8	45.8	8.1	2.2	4.3	3.8	10.0
1–14 Feb	Nexo	37.6	45.1	7.5	2.8	3.3	3.7	7.5
1–13 Feb	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 1]}	33.8	46.9				19.3	13.1
30 Jan	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 1]}	35.2	46.4	8.8	2.9	3.8	2.9	11.2
16–24 Jan	IMC^{[lower-alpha 1]}	34.8	46.6	8.4	2.1	4.6	3.5	11.8
2012
1–30 Dec	CADPEA	37.6	47.0	6.3	2.0	3.0	4.1	9.4
20 Nov 2011	General Election	36.6	45.6	8.3	1.8	4.8	2.9	9.0
18–24 Oct	Commentia	34.8	49.4	8.4	2.0		5.4	14.6
26 Sep–21 Oct	IESA	36.0	46.4	8.1	2.8	3.2	3.5	10.4
6 Jun–11 Jul	CADPEA	34.3	48.9	8.3	2.4	1.4	4.7	14.6
4–10 Jul	IMOP	39.0	46.0	6.8	2.5	3.0	2.7	7.0
12–15 Apr	Sigma-2	36.8	48.0	7.8			7.4	11.2
28 Feb	Metroscopia	35.2	47.5	8.4			8.9	12.3
10–20 Feb	IMC	37.8	44.8	7.5	2.3		7.6	7.0
9–16 Feb	Commentia	36.9	47.1	8.5	2.9		4.6	10.2
1–4 Feb	GESPA	37.0	46.1	7.8			9.1	9.1
18 Jan–2 Feb	Nexo	39.7	46.2	7.6	3.2		3.3	6.5
22 Jan	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 1]}	38.7	45.7				15.6	7.0
2011
20–23 Dec	Sigma-2	36.4	49.3	7.2			7.1	12.9
24 Nov–22 Dec	CADPEA	36.2	45.4	8.2	2.3	1.4	6.5	9.2
18 Oct–18 Nov	IESA	37.7	46.8	8.2	2.9	1.7	2.7	9.1
7 Nov	Commentia	39.1	46.2	7.0	2.7	2.1	2.9	7.1
20–26 Sep	GESPA	38.2	45.5	7.6	2.5	1.7	4.5	7.3
6 Jun–6 Jul	CADPEA	38.0	45.1	8.1	2.1	1.5	5.2	7.1
10–15 Jun	Commentia	38.1	45.4	8.5	2.5	1.5	4.0	7.3
8–12 Jun	IMC	38.3	43.8	7.5	2.3		8.1	5.5
3 Mar	Commentia	42.9	42.5	7.5	2.5	2.0	2.6	0.4
1 Mar	Sigma-2	41.8	45.7	6.2	1.4	1.6	3.3	3.9
28 Feb	Metroscopia	41.0	43.3	7.2			8.5	2.3
20 Feb	PULSO	41.8	41.1	6.4	2.4	2.6	5.7	0.7
25 Jan–12 Feb	IMC^{[lower-alpha 1]}	40.4	42.4	7.1	2.1		8.0	2.0
7–29 Jan	CADPEA	43.2	41.9	7.1	2.8	1.4	3.6	1.3
20–28 Jan	Nexo	41.3	41.9	6.9	3.9		6.0	0.6
15 Jan	IESA	41.6	43.2	7.1	2.4	1.8	3.9	1.6
2010
23 Sep–2 Oct	Commentia	42.7	42.2	7.1	2.4	2.6	3.0	0.5
9 Jun–9 Jul	CADPEA	46.2	39.7	6.7	2.6		4.8	6.5
28 Jun	Commentia	45.6	39.1	7.5	2.7	2.4	2.7	6.5
25 May–19 Jun	PULSO	48.6	40.2	6.2	1.8		3.2	8.4
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	48.2	39.7	5.2	1.0	2.5	3.4	8.5
28 Feb	Commentia	46.2	39.1	7.5	2.8	1.2	2.9	7.1
28 Feb	Metroscopia	44.3	43.2	6.6	2.9		3.0	1.1
19–23 Feb	Sigma-2	46.8	40.5	7.2	2.3		3.2	6.3
5–9 Feb	IMC^{[lower-alpha 1]}	45.3	42.1	6.8	1.9		3.9	3.2
2009
9–19 Dec	IAC	44.7	43.1	7.6	1.5		3.1	1.6
14 Nov–12 Dec	CADPEA	46.2	38.8	7.5	2.2		5.3	7.4
10 Nov–5 Dec	IESA	47.0	40.8	6.2	2.5		3.5	6.2
19 Oct	Commentia	46.5	39.6	7.3	2.2	1.2	3.2	6.9
4–28 Jun	CADPEA	46.7	38.1	7.9	2.0		5.3	8.6
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	48.4	38.5	7.1	2.8	0.6	2.6	9.9

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

55 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	UPyD	Others
Date	Polling Firm/Source						Others
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	47	50	12	0	0	0
25 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	45−48	52−55	8−10	0	0	0
Exit polls
19 Mar	GAD3	44−48	55−58	7−9	0	0	0
12–16 Mar	UJA	43−45	53−56	9−10	0−1	0−1	0
12–15 Mar	Sigma-2	43−44	54−57	7−9	0−1	1−2	0
6–15 Mar	Metroscopia	41	59	9	0	0	0
1–15 Mar	NC-Report	42−43	55−57	7−9	0−1	0−2	0
7–12 Mar	IMC	43	58	6	0	2	0
5–12 Mar	Low-Cost	44	57	7	0	1	0
5–8 Mar	GAD3	42−45	56−58	7−10	0	0−1	0
20 Feb–6 Mar	NC-Report	41−44	55−57	8−9	0−1	0−2	0
13–29 Feb	Commentia	44−47	54−57	7−8	0	1	0
15–27 Feb	CIS	44−46	54−55	9−10	0	0	0
22–24 Feb	Sigma-2	42−44	54−57	8−9	0−1	1−2	0
6–22 Feb	GESPA	43−44	56−58	6−7	0	2	0
8–16 Feb	IMC	43	59	6	0	1	0
1–14 Feb	Nexo	46−47	53−57	6−8	0−1	0−1	0
1–13 Feb	NC-Report	41	57	9	1	1	0
30 Jan	NC-Report	44	55	8	1	1	0
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	(43)	(58)	(6)	(0)	(2)	(0)
12–15 Apr	Sigma-2	43−46	56−60	6−7	0	0	0
28 Feb	Metroscopia	45	57	7	0	0	0
10–20 Feb	IMC	45	57	7	0	0	0
1–4 Feb	GESPA	45	56−57	7−8	0	0	0
22 Jan	NC-Report	46−47	53−54	9	0	0	0
2011
20–23 Dec	Sigma-2	41−46	56−64	4−7	0	0	0
20–26 Sep	GESPA	45−46	56−57	7	0	0	0
8–12 Jun	IMC	46	56	7	0	0	0
28 Feb	Metroscopia	49	54	6	0	0	0
25 Jan–12 Feb	IMC	51	52	6	0	0	0
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	(58)	(48)	(3)	(0)	(0)	(0)
2 Feb	Metroscopia	53−55	49−50	5−6	0	0	0
5–9 Feb	IMC	54	49	6	0	0	0
2009
9–19 Dec	IAC	52	51	6	0	0	0
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	56	47	6	0	0	0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 Andalusian Parliament election results →
Party		Popular vote			Seats

Party		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP–A)	1,570,833	40.67	+2.22	50	+3
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	1,527,923	39.56	–8.85	47	–9
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	438,372	11.35	+4.29	12	+6
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	129,407	3.35	+2.73	0	±0
	Andalusian Party (PA)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	96,770	2.51	–0.25	0	±0

Parties with less than 1.0% of the vote		64,361	1.67	—	±0
	Equo (eQuo)	20,383	0.53	New	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,781	0.23	New	±0
	Blank Seats (EB)	5,660	0.15	New	±0
	Jaded.org (Hartos.org)	4,966	0.13	New	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	4,119	0.11	+0.05	±0
	We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP)	2,680	0.07	New	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE–JONS)	2,407	0.06	+0.02	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,704	0.04	New	±0
	Andalusian Platform–Citizen Forum (FC)	1,634	0.04	New	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	1,406	0.04	New	±0
	Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO)	1,071	0.03	New	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	1,040	0.03	–0.03	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	1,026	0.03	New	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	896	0.02	–0.07	±0
	Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN)	832	0.02	New	±0
	Socialists and Republicans (SyR)	787	0.02	New	±0
	Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)	762	0.02	–0.15	±0
	Spanish Alternative (AES)	653	0.02	New	±0
	Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)	643	0.02	New	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	628	0.02	New	±0
	Democratic Majority (MD)	515	0.01	New	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	408	0.01	–0.01	±0
	Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD)	362	0.01	New	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	345	0.01	–0.02	±0
	Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL)	216	0.01	New	±0
	Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA)	156	0.00	New	±0
	Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA)	146	0.00	New	±0
	Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA)	135	0.00	New	±0

	Blank ballots	35,081	0.91	–0.15

Total		3,862,747	100.00		109	±0

Valid votes		3,862,747	99.42	+0.05
Invalid votes		22,390	0.58	–0.05
Votes cast / turnout		3,885,137	60.78	–11.89
Abstentions		2,507,483	39.22	+11.89
Registered voters		6,392,620

Source: Argos Information Portal
↑ Andalusian Party results are compared to Andalusian Coalition totals in the 2008 election.

Vote share

PP–A			40.67%
PSOE–A			39.56%
IULV–CA			11.35%
UPyD			3.35%
PA			2.51%
Others			1.67%
Blank ballots			0.91%

Parliamentary seats

PP–A			45.87%
PSOE–A			43.12%
IULV–CA			11.01%

Results by district


District	PP–A		PSOE–A		IULV–CA
	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	51.2	7	35.4	4	7.1	1
Cádiz	40.5	7	35.6	6	12.7	2
Córdoba	39.7	5	38.9	5	13.3	2
Granada	43.5	6	39.5	6	10.0	1
Huelva	38.6	5	43.4	5	10.9	1
Jaén	41.1	5	44.5	5	8.8	1
Málaga	43.7	8	35.3	7	12.2	2
Seville	35.3	7	43.1	9	12.2	2
Total	40.7	50	39.6	47	11.3	12

Aftermath

Investiture vote

On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.

First round: 3 May 2012
Absolute majority (55/109) required
Candidate: José Antonio Griñán
Choice		Vote
Choice		Parties	Votes
	YYes	PSOE–A (47), IULV–CA (11)	58 / 109
	No	PP–A (50)	50 / 109
	Abstentions		0 / 109
Invalid vote: IULV–CA (1)
Source: Historia Electoral

In July 2013, President Griñán announced he would resign after a successor for the office had been chosen from among his party. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required guarantees to stand in the primary election that was to held for such a purpose, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Junta of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Andalusian Parliament elected Díaz as Griñán's successor.

First round: 5 September 2013
Absolute majority (55/109) required
Candidate: Susana Díaz
Choice		Vote
Choice		Parties	Votes
	YYes	PSOE–A (47), IULV–CA (11)	58 / 109
	No	PP–A (48)	48 / 109
	Abstentions		0 / 109
Non-registered vote: IULV–CA (1) Absences: PP–A (2)
Source: Historia Electoral

References

↑ "Test for Rajoy and Rubalcaba" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-03-23.
↑ "The reform eases and cheapens the dismissal" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-02-10.
↑ "29 March, general strike" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-03-09.
↑ "Griñán will not call snap election in Andalusia" (in Spanish). diariovasco.com. 2011-07-29.
↑ "The left wins in Andalusia" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-03-25.
↑ "Law 1/1986, of 2 January, electoral of Andalusia".
↑ "Statute of Autonomy of Andalusia (2007); Title IV. Chapter I. The Parliament of Andalusia". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-03-28.
↑ "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012" (in Spanish). El País. Retrieved 2012-01-21.
↑ "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo" (in Spanish). Público. Retrieved 2012-01-21.
↑ "El PP se haría con la Junta de Andalucía con los resultados de las generales" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital.com. Retrieved 2012-01-21.

Elections in Andalusia

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Regional elections in Spain in the 2010s

2010	November: Catalonia

2011	May: Aragon Asturias Balearic Islands Canary Islands Cantabria Castile and León Castile-La Mancha Ceuta Extremadura La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia Navarre Valencian Community

2012	March: Andalusia Asturias October: Basque Country Galicia November: Catalonia

2015	March: Andalusia May: Aragon Asturias Balearic Islands Canary Islands Cantabria Castile and León Castile-La Mancha Ceuta Extremadura La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia Navarre Valencian Community September: Catalonia

2016	September: Basque Country Galicia

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