Tyranny of Numbers Kenya

Tyranny of Numbers was a hypothesis that was generated by Mutahi Ngunyi with a conclusion that Raila Odinga and his 'CORD Alliance' lost 2013 election to Uhuru Kenyatta Jubilee Alliance the moment the voter registration ended on December 18, 2012. Uhuru went on to win the election and Jubilee won majority on both houses

Hypothesis

The hypothesis indicated that the Jubilee Alliance of Uhuru Kenyatta will win the 2013 presidential election in the first round with a substantial majority over the Cord Coalition of Raila Odinga. In contrast to this, numerous opinion polls indicated otherwise.^[1]

Ngunyi then uses electoral demographics to build what, on examination, was described as a house of cards. The Jubilee Alliance, he argued, begins with such a large numerical advantage the effort needed to secure an electoral victory is infinitesimally small. He argue Jubilee should win the presidential election in the first round. This inevitable victory comes from the Jubilee Coalition’s “bankable” ethnic vote of 6.2 Million (or 43.2% of the total vote). This number is basically a totting up of the registered GEMA and the Kalenjin voters. On that same ethnic logic, Mutahi reckons that CORD Coalition starts off with 19.2% of the vote or 2.74 million votes. For CORD to win, he says, they need to double their support. Or as he puts it, for CORD to catch up with Jubilee, it must multiply each of its Kamba and Luo vote by 2.3. Virtually impossible is the implication.^[2]

The election outcome was as hypothesized. Cord coalition lost to Jubilee alliance. All the Opinion polls were nullified by the announcement of the final result by IEBC. Jubilee also boast of having majority in both houses i.e National Assembly and Senate

Use in Parliament

National Assembly

During a debate (on 5th Sept 2013)in parliament for Kenya withdrawal from International criminal court, minority legislature staged a walkout since the majority leader was using number to pass the motion disregarding their opinion and amendment to the motion.^[3][4]

Senate

During a debate (on 10th Sept 2013)in senate for Kenya withdrawal from International criminal court, minority senators staged a walkout since the majority leader was using number to pass the motion disregarding their opinion and amendment to the motion.^[5]

References