Sabato's Crystal Ball
 | |
| Type | Weekly newsletter |
|---|---|
| Format | Newsletter |
| Publisher | University of Virginia Center for Politics |
| Editor | Larry Sabato |
| Founded | 2002 |
| Political alignment | Nonpartisan |
| Headquarters | Charlottesville, Virginia, USA |
| Circulation | 12,000 |
| Website | Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball |
Sabato's Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter and website in the United States that analyzes current American politics and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and U.S. president races. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the Crystal Ball was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato, supporter of Hillary Clinton, and the Democratic Party, and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.
Crystal Ball predicts every race by the morning of election day, rather than only predicting the races with a clear leader and declaring the others unpredictable. This is intended to allow for a full projection of the election's most likely outcome, rather than simply a list of races to pay attention to.[1]
History
2002
The Crystal Ball was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato.[2] For the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign, with over 1,500 people subscribing to its weekly e-mail updates.[2]
In the end, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 433 of the 435 U.S. House races with an average rate of 99.6%, 32 of the 34 U.S. Senate races with an average rate of 94%, and 32 of the 36 governor’s races with an average rate of 88%.
2004
Following a post-election hiatus, the Crystal Ball re-launched on January 27, 2003 to cover the 2004 election cycle.[2] In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the Crystal Ball sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention in Boston and the Republican National Convention in New York City. On Election Day, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor’s races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).[3]
2006
During the 2006 election cycle the Crystal Ball added House Race Editor Dave Wasserman and expanded its election coverage and analysis. The Crystal Ball predicted a 29 seat pick-up for Democrats in the House and 6 seat pick-up in the Senate, both of which were exactly right.[4]
Race by race, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 417 of 435 U.S. House races (96%), 33 of 33 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 35 of 36 gubernatorial races (97%).
2008
In August 2007, the Crystal Ball added respected political analyst and author Rhodes Cook to its team, a veteran of Congressional Quarterly and editor of the America Votes series.[5] Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the Cook Political Report and was replaced by Isaac Wood.
In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President, the Crystal Ball published an essay which correctly projected that Barack Obama would win in a near-landslide.[6]
In the elections of November 2008, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 34 of 35 U.S. Senate races (97%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the Crystal Ball predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally.[7][8]
2010
The 2010 elections marked the fifth federal election cycle in which the Crystal Ball has been published.
In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives.[9] The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans.[10] The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.[11]
2012
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency 290 electoral votes to 248 for Mitt Romney; there would be no change in composition of the Senate with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives making it 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[12] Actually, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes, to Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 206. In the Senate, the Democrats gained a net of two seats, leaving them with a total of 53 seats. The Republicans lost a net of two seats, ending with a total of 45 seats. The remaining two senators, both independents, caucused with the Democrats, leaving the majority party with a combined total of 55 seats. House Republicans retained a 234 to 201 seat majority.
Recognition
In 2006, the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism rated the Crystal Ball as the most accurate pre-election predictor.[1] In addition, anchors of MSNBC, Fox News, and CNBC all praised its accuracy.[13] Journalists and political watchers who have commended the Crystal Ball for its accuracy include Fred Barnes, Lester Holt, Steve Doocy, Larry Kudlow, Carl Cameron, Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times, and Will Vehrs of Punditwatch.[2][4]
Contributors
Over the Crystal Ball’s history, it has published articles from staff members and a variety of guest columnists, including:[14][15]
Guest columnists
- James E. Campbell – Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University at Buffalo in New York.
- Dale Eisman – Former Washington correspondent for the Virginian-Pilot
- Lawrence R. Jacobs – Walter F. and Joan Mondale Chair for Political Studies at the University of Minnesota and the Director of the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs
- Dahlia Lithwick – Contributing editor at Newsweek and senior editor at Slate
- Thomas E. Mann – Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
- Diana Owen – Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of American Studies at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C
- Barbara A. Perry – Carter Glass Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Civic Renewal at Sweet Briar College in Virginia
Staff contributors
Current staff
- Alan Abramowitz – Senior Columnist for the Crystal Ball and Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University[16]
- Rhodes Cook – Senior Columnist for the Crystal Ball and author[17]
- Kyle Kondik – House Race Editor[18]
- Larry Sabato – Founder of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia[19]
- Geoffrey Skelley – Political Analyst[18]
Former staff
- Michael Baudinet – Former Executive Assistant to Larry Sabato
- Cordel Faulk – Former Director of Communications, Media and Research for the University of Virginia Center for Politics
- Joseph Figueroa – Former Executive Assistant to Larry Sabato
- Rakesh Gopalan – Former Senior Editor and Research Analyst for the University of Virginia Center for Politics
- Peter Jackson – Former Deputy Director of Communications for the University of Virginia Center for Politics
- Dan Keyserling – Former Deputy Director of Communications for the University of Virginia Center for Politics
- Matt Smyth – Former Senior Editor and Director of Communications for the University of Virginia Center for Politics
- David Wasserman – Former House Race Editor for the Crystal Ball and current House Editor for the Cook Political Report
- Paul Wiley – Former staff writer
- Isaac Wood – Former House Race Editor for the Crystal Ball
References
- 1 2 "The Election Pundits...Who Got Closest?". Project for Excellence in Journalism, Pew Research Center. November 13, 2006.
- 1 2 3 4 "ELECTION 2002: How the CB fared..." (PDF). University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- ↑ "A Look Back, A Look Forward". University of Virginia Center for Politics. November 9, 2004. Archived from the original on February 13, 2008.
- 1 2 "News Networks Recognize Success of 'Sabato's Crystal Ball'". UVA Today. University of Virginia. November 10, 2006.
- ↑ "'Sabato's Crystal Ball' Adds Analyst and Author Rhodes Cook". University of Virginia Center for Politics. August 9, 2007.
- ↑ "The Myth of a Toss-Up Election". July 24, 2008.
- ↑ "The Last Last Word". November 3, 2008. Archived from the original on December 25, 2008.
- ↑ "The Election Without End". November 6, 2008. Archived from the original on December 19, 2008.
- ↑ 2010 Election Special November 1, 2012
- ↑ Election Eve Special November 1, 2010
- ↑ GOP picks up Senate seats but falls short of majority November 3, 2010
- ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
- ↑ "Dear Friends". November 21, 2006. Archived from the original on February 13, 2008.
- ↑ "Past Columns". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Archived from the original on June 21, 2009.
- ↑ "Staff". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Archived from the original on June 3, 2009.
- ↑ "Staff, Center for Politics". U.Va. Center for Politics. Retrieved 8 March 2012.
- ↑ "Staff, Center for Politics". U.Va. Center for Politics. Retrieved 8 March 2012.
- 1 2 "About the Crystal Ball". U.Va. Center for Politics. Retrieved 8 March 2012.
- ↑ "Staff, Center for Politics". U.Va. Center for Politics. Retrieved 8 March 2012.
