Predictability

Predictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively.

In statistical physics

Although the second law of thermodynamics can tell us about the equilibrium state that a system will evolve to, and steady states in dissipative systems can sometimes be predicted, there exists no genum, e.g. chaotic systems, if they do not approach an equilibrium state. Their predictability usually deteriorates with time and to quantify predictability, the rate of divergence of system trajectories in phase space can be measured (Kolmogorov–Sinai entropy, Lyapunov exponents).^[1]

In mathematics

In stochastic analysis a random process is a predictable process if it is possible to know the "next" state at the present time.

In human–computer interaction

In the study of human–computer interaction, predictability is the property to forecast the consequences of a user action given the current state of the system.

In human sentence processing

Main article: Prediction in language comprehension

Linguistic prediction is a phenomenon in psycholinguistics occurring whenever information about a word or other linguistic unit is activated before that unit is actually encountered. Evidence from eyetracking, event-related potentials, and other experimental methods indicates that in addition to integrating each subsequent word into the context formed by previously encountered words, language users may, under certain conditions, try to predict upcoming words. Predictability has been shown to affect both text and speech processing, as well as speech production. Further, predictability has been shown to have an effect on syntactic, semantic and pragmatic comprehension.

References

↑ Boeing, G. (2016). "Visual Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems: Chaos, Fractals, Self-Similarity and the Limits of Prediction". Systems. 4 (4): 37. doi:10.3390/systems4040037. |access-date= requires |url= (help)

External links

Look up predictability in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.

Chaos theory

Chaos theory	Anosov diffeomorphism Bifurcation theory Butterfly effect Chaos theory in organizational development Complexity Control of chaos Dynamical system Edge of chaos Fractal Predictability Quantum chaos Santa Fe Institute Synchronization of chaos Unintended consequences

Chaotic maps (list)	Arnold tongue Arnold's cat map Baker's map Complex quadratic map Complex squaring map Coupled map lattice Double pendulum Double scroll attractor Duffing equation Duffing map Dyadic transformation Dynamical billiards outer Exponential map Gauss map Gingerbreadman map Hénon map Horseshoe map Ikeda map Interval exchange map Kaplan–Yorke map Logistic map Lorenz system Multiscroll attractor Rabinovich–Fabrikant equations Rössler attractor Standard map Swinging Atwood's machine Tent map Tinkerbell map Van der Pol oscillator Zaslavskii map

Chaos systems	Bouncing ball dynamics Chua's circuit Economic bubble Tilt-A-Whirl

Chaos theorists	Michael Berry Leon O. Chua Mitchell Feigenbaum Martin Gutzwiller Brosl Hasslacher Michel Hénon Edward Norton Lorenz Aleksandr Lyapunov Benoît Mandelbrot Henri Poincaré Otto Rössler David Ruelle Oleksandr Mykolaiovych Sharkovsky Floris Takens James A. Yorke

Statistics

Descriptive statistics

Continuous data

Center	Mean arithmetic geometric harmonic Median Mode

Dispersion	Variance Standard deviation Coefficient of variation Percentile Range Interquartile range

Shape	Moments Skewness Kurtosis L-moments

Count data

Index of dispersion

Summary tables

Dependence

Graphics

Data collection

Study design	Population Statistic Effect size Statistical power Sample size determination Missing data

Survey methodology	Sampling Standard error stratified cluster Opinion poll Questionnaire

Controlled experiments	Design control optimal Controlled trial Randomized Random assignment Replication Blocking Interaction Factorial experiment

Uncontrolled studies	Observational study Natural experiment Quasi-experiment

Statistical inference

Statistical theory

Frequentist inference

Point estimation	Estimating equations Maximum likelihood Method of moments M-estimator Minimum distance Unbiased estimators Mean-unbiased minimum-variance Rao–Blackwellization Lehmann–Scheffé theorem Median unbiased Plug-in

Interval estimation	Confidence interval Pivot Likelihood interval Prediction interval Tolerance interval Resampling Bootstrap Jackknife

Testing hypotheses	1- & 2-tails Power Uniformly most powerful test Permutation test Randomization test Multiple comparisons

Parametric tests	Likelihood-ratio Wald Score

Specific tests

Z (normal) Student's t-test F

Goodness of fit	Chi-squared Kolmogorov–Smirnov Anderson–Darling Normality (Shapiro–Wilk) Likelihood-ratio test Model selection Cross validation AIC BIC

Rank statistics	Sign Sample median Signed rank (Wilcoxon) Hodges–Lehmann estimator Rank sum (Mann–Whitney) Nonparametric anova 1-way (Kruskal–Wallis) 2-way (Friedman) Ordered alternative (Jonckheere–Terpstra)

Bayesian inference

Correlation	Pearson product–moment Partial correlation Confounding variable Coefficient of determination

Regression analysis	Errors and residuals Regression model validation Mixed effects models Simultaneous equations models Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)

Linear regression	Simple linear regression Ordinary least squares General linear model Bayesian regression

Non-standard predictors	Nonlinear regression Nonparametric Semiparametric Isotonic Robust Heteroscedasticity Homoscedasticity

Generalized linear model	Exponential families Logistic (Bernoulli) / Binomial / Poisson regressions

Partition of variance	Analysis of variance (ANOVA, anova) Analysis of covariance Multivariate ANOVA Degrees of freedom

Categorical / Multivariate / Time-series / Survival analysis

Categorical

Multivariate

Time-series

General	Decomposition Trend Stationarity Seasonal adjustment Exponential smoothing Cointegration Structural break Granger causality

Specific tests	Dickey–Fuller Johansen Q-statistic (Ljung–Box) Durbin–Watson Breusch–Godfrey

Time domain	Autocorrelation (ACF) partial (PACF) Cross-correlation (XCF) ARMA model ARIMA model (Box–Jenkins) Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Vector autoregression (VAR)

Frequency domain	Spectral density estimation Fourier analysis Wavelet

Survival

Survival function	Kaplan–Meier estimator (product limit) Proportional hazards models Accelerated failure time (AFT) model First hitting time

Hazard function	Nelson–Aalen estimator

Test	Log-rank test

Applications

Biostatistics	Bioinformatics Clinical trials / studies Epidemiology Medical statistics

Engineering statistics	Chemometrics Methods engineering Probabilistic design Process / quality control Reliability System identification

Social statistics	Actuarial science Census Crime statistics Demography Econometrics National accounts Official statistics Population statistics Psychometrics

Spatial statistics	Cartography Environmental statistics Geographic information system Geostatistics Kriging

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