Opinion polling for the Catalan parliamentary election, 2015

In the run up to the Catalonian parliamentary election of 2015, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Catalonia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 25 November 2012, to the present day. President Artur Mas has announced that the next parliamentary election will be held on 27 September 2015.[1]

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

w/ JxSí, CSQP

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Sample
size
TO Lead
Regional Election 27.09.15 N/A 74.9% 39.6 12.7 8.5 8.9 2.5 17.9 8.2 21.7
TNS Demoscopia 27.09.15 30,000 ? 40.7 12.0 7.7 10.4 2.9 15.4 9.1 25.3
Directe.cat 26.09.15 ? ? 42 12 9 10 16 8 26
GAD3 14.09.15–25.09.15 3,000 77% 40.0 13.5 9.0 9.5 3.0 14.5 8.0 25.5
Técnicas Demoscópicas 21.09.15 1,200 ? 41.0 12.0 11.0 12.0 2.5 13.0 7.0 28.0
Celeste-Tel 16.09.15–21.09.15 1,100 ? 38.9 12.2 9.1 11.9 2.6 17.0 7.8 21.9
Celeste-Tel 15.09.15–20.09.15 1,100 ? 38.7 12.0 9.3 12.1 2.9 16.7 7.7 22.0
Celeste-Tel 14.09.15–19.09.15 1,100 ? 38.5 12.1 9.7 12.0 3.0 16.5 7.4 22.0
Encuestamos 12.09.15–19.09.15 844 ? 35.7 13.4 10.5 14.6 2.3 13.3 8.3 21.1
NC Report 11.09.15–19.09.15 1,255 ? 38.0 12.1 9.9 12.4 3.7 15.3 6.2 22.7
JM & Asociados 18.09.15 ? 71.7% 40.3 11.1 9.9 12.0 1.8 14.8 7.3 25.5
Celeste-Tel 14.09.15–18.09.15 1,100 66.2% 38.8 12.1 9.9 12.6 3.1 14.6 6.2 24.2
GAD3 14.09.15–18.09.15 800 73% 40.7 11.9 10.2 10.3 1.9 14.1 6.4 26.6
Invymark 14.09.15–18.09.15 ? ? 43.4 10.6 8.9 12.6 1.8 14.3 6.3 29.1
NC Report 10.09.15–18.09.15 ? ? 38.0 12.2 10.0 12.5 3.5 15.4 5.9 22.6
Sigma Dos 16.09.15–17.09.15 1,400 ? 40.5 10.8 9.6 11.2 2.8 14.8 7.3 25.7
Feedback 14.09.15–17.09.15 1,000 72.3% 40.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 4.2 14.4 6.4 26.3
My Word 10.09.15–17.09.15 1,000 ? 40.1 11.7 8.8 12.6 1.5 15.4 8.1 24.7
NC Report 09.09.15–17.09.15 ? ? 38.1 11.9 9.7 12.3 3.7 15.8 5.6 22.3
Metroscopia 14.09.15–16.09.15 2,000 74% 41.2 11.7 7.3 11.4 2.7 14.9 8.4 26.3
DYM 14.09.15–16.09.15 1,157 ? 42.4 8.4 11.9 10.4 1.1 18.3 7.5 24.1
Opinòmetre 14.09.15–16.09.15 1,000 ? 39.2 13.2 8.9 11.1 5.2 15.9 6.4 23.3
NC Report 08.09.15–16.09.15 ? ? 37.9 11.6 9.5 12.5 3.8 16.2 5.6 21.7
Sigma Dos 14.09.15–15.09.15 1,800 ? 40.3 9.1 9.3 12.3 2.2 15.4 8.2 24.9
NC Report 07.09.15–15.09.15 1,255 ? 37.6 11.4 9.4 12.7 3.9 16.5 5.2 21.1
JM & Asociados 12.09.15 ? 72.0% 39.9 10.0 8.3 11.3 2.7 15.5 9.1 24.4
JxSí 12.09.15 1,200 70.1% 41.0 9.7 10.4 13.5 2.0 14.1 6.7 26.9
Invymark 07.09.15–11.09.15 ? ? 41.3 11.1 9.6 13.2 1.8 13.9 5.9 27.4
Sondaxe 03.09.15–08.09.15 750 ? 42.1 12.6 11.5 10.2 11.6 7.4 29.5
IBES 01.09.15–08.09.15 1,200 ? 38.3 11.1 10.2 11.4 2.8 13.4 7.2 24.9
Encuestamos 07.09.15 ? ? 33.2 12.9 9.1 19.2 4.0 12.5 8.4 14.0
CIS 30.08.15–04.09.15 2,999 ? 38.1 12.2 9.4 13.9 1.5 14.8 5.9 23.3
JM & Asociados 03.09.15 ? 71.6% 39.8 10.1 8.5 11.2 2.3 15.6 9.0 24.4
GAPS 01.09.15–03.09.15 1,221 ? 43.5 9.5 12.3 11.5 12.6 7.5 30.9
Sigma Dos 31.08.15–03.09.15 1,400 ? 39.4 11.1 9.8 12.4 3.8 12.7 6.7 26.7
GESOP 31.08.15–02.09.15 800 ? 38.8 10.3 7.9 12.4 2.4 19.9 6.0 18.9
NC Report 17.08.15–22.08.15 955 64.4% 36.3 11.7 9.3 12.3 4.4 17.9 4.7 18.4
NC Report 16.07.15–23.07.15 1,255 64.6% 35.8 12.0 8.2 12.8 4.6 19.1 4.2 16.7
JM & Asociados 21.07.15 ? 74.1% 39.2 7.6 6.7 17.0 3.6 15.7 7.2 22.2
Feedback 06.07.15–09.07.15 1,000 69.5% 46.7 7.5 6.6 17.5 3.3 17.0 29.2
GAPS 01.07.15–03.07.15 820 ? 32 9 9 20 4 16 8 12
? 49 11 7 18 3 12 31

w/ JxSí

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Sample
size
TO
Lead
Feedback 01.12.14–04.12.14 1,000 67.7% 41.7 11.1 8.8 6.2 14.3 5.9 11.2 27.4
GESOP 14.11.14–17.11.14 800 ? 35.2 10.2 7.2 8.0 2.4 11.8 6.1 15.5 19.7

w/o CiU; w/ CSQP

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Sample
size
TO Lead
Feedback 06.07.15–09.07.15 1,000 69.4% 22.0 9.6 15.0 7.3 16.5 4.2 16.0 7.0 5.5
GAPS 01.07.15–03.07.15 820 ? 19 12 15 6 17 3 17 10 2
GESOP 17.06.15–21.06.15 800 ? 22.4 7.0 12.9 6.0 22.4 4.6 14.9 8.2 Tie

w/o CiU

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Sample
size
TO
Lead
GESOP 17.06.15–21.06.15 800 ? 23.1 7.8 13.8 5.9 4.2 4.7 15.1 9.4 13.8 8.0
NC Report 22.07.14–26.07.14 970 63.7% 13.3 11.9 22.8 10.8 7.5 5.9 12.7 4.9 6.9 9.5
GESOP 16.06.14–18.06.14 800 ? 17.5 7.7 23.4 6.9 8.7 5.1 11.7 4.5 8.0 5.9
GESOP 16.10.13–18.10.13 800 ? 15.2 11.1 22.8 10.1 11.5 5.0 13.5 4.4 7.6

w/ CiU

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Sample
size
TO
Lead
GESOP 17.06.15–21.06.15 800 ? 22.7 8.0 16.0 6.9 4.5 16.2 9.8 13.8 6.5
Municipal Elections 24.05.15 N/A 58.5% 21.5 17.1 16.4 7.5 11.8 7.4 7.6 4.4
Feedback 27.04.15–29.04.15 1,000 66.5% 22.6 9.9 16.6 6.6 6.6 19.1 7.9 6.3 3.5
CEO 09.02.15–02.03.15 2,000 68% 19.5 8.2 18.9 10.2 5.8 12.4 7.3 12.2 0.6
GESOP 20.02.15–26.02.15 800 ? 20.1 7.9 17.3 9.8 6.9 17.8 7.1 9.8 2.3
NC Report 15.01.15–17.01.15 955 66.1% 21.5 10.7 21.7 9.9 5.8 12.9 3.5 11.4 0.2
CEO 09.12.14–13.12.14 1,100 67% 21.9 10.3 21.0 8.8 6.6 11.3 5.5 8.2 0.9
Feedback 01.12.14–04.12.14 1,000 67.7% 26.7 9.3 18.8 7.2 4.9 13.7 6.5 11.3 7.9
Sigma Dos 17.11.14–20.11.14 800 ? 23.8 10.2 22.1 7.4 4.5 9.7 3.8 14.3 1.7
GESOP 14.11.14–17.11.14 800 ? 20.8 8.2 19.9 7.8 8.2 13.5 5.2 13.8 0.9
NC Report 13.11.14–15.11.14 ? 66.4% 22.8 10.8 21.0 10.0 6.0 12.0 3.7 10.9 1.8
CEO 29.09.14–23.10.14 2,000 ? 19.4 11.2 23.2 8.6 7.2 7.0 6.5 8.5 3.8
NC Report 14.10.14–18.10.14 970 64.4% 17.5 11.8 23.0 10.9 6.9 13.0 4.2 9.2 5.5
NC Report 01.09.14–06.09.14 970 63.8% 18.1 11.8 23.0 10.7 7.0 13.0 4.6 8.1 4.9
Sigma Dos 26.08.14–29.08.14 ? ? 19.1 13.8 23.2 9.5 5.6 7.5 3.6 12.4 4.1
NC Report 22.07.14–26.07.14 970 63.7% 19.2 11.9 22.8 10.8 7.5 12.7 4.9 6.9 3.6
GESOP 16.06.14–18.06.14 800 ? 18.5 8.9 23.9 9.5 8.6 12.2 4.7 8.5 5.4
EP Election 25.05.14 N/A 46.2% 21.8 14.3 23.7 9.8 10.3 6.3 4.7 1.9
Feedback 30.04.14–08.05.14 577 56.7% 23.9 12.7 22.5 12.4 9.8 11.5 5.2 1.4
CEO 24.03.14–15.04.14 2,000 60% 22.0 11.4 21.8 9.2 11.7 11.6 6.6 0.2
NC Report 07.04.14–12.04.14 970 62.4% 21.9 12.8 22.3 11.2 9.5 12.6 5.3 0.4
Ara 15.03.14 ? ? 22.3 11.0 23.0 9.2 10.7 13.1 4.9 0.7
GESOP 26.02.14–28.02.14 800 ? 22.5 11.0 21.7 9.0 11.5 13.9 4.5 0.8
Sondeos RA 05.02.14–10.02.14 1,000 68.4% 22.9 11.2 23.2 10.8 9.6 13.1 5.5 0.3
NC Report 20.01.14–25.01.14 970 63.3% 22.8 12.6 20.8 11.8 9.9 10.9 5.3 2.0
Feedback 16.12.13–19.12.13 1,000 61.2% 22.4 12.4 23.5 9.5 10.1 14.2 4.4 1.1
NC Report 09.12.13–14.12.13 880 64.5% 22.9 12.1 21.9 11.7 9.9 11.1 6.0 1.0
Sigma Dos 12.12.13–13.12.13 1,000 ? 24.3 12.5 20.6 11.5 8.7 10.2 6.0 3.7
CEO 04.11.13–14.11.13 2,000 60% 22.2 11.1 24.2 9.4 9.8 12.2 5.2 2.0
Metroscopia 28.10.13–30.10.13 1,000 70% 19.4 8.4 23.2 7.5 10.5 15.3 4.9 3.8
GESOP 16.10.13–18.10.13 800 ? 20.2 11.1 22.8 10.1 11.5 13.5 4.4 2.6
Feedback 30.09.13–04.10.13 1,000 61.1% 23.9 11.9 24.2 10.6 10.3 9.6 5.2 0.3
My Word 02.09.13–07.09.13 800 ? 20.7 10.5 22.1 7.0 12.1 12.6 3.3 1.4
CEO 31.05.13–13.06.13 2,000 60% 22.8 12.1 24.4 10.4 9.6 9.5 4.9 1.6
GESOP 28.05.13–31.05.13 800 ? 21.4 12.2 24.3 10.2 12.2 10.0 3.5 2.9
NC Report 25.03.13 ? 64.9% 26.2 12.0 17.9 12.9 9.2 10.9 5.8 8.3
CEO 04.02.13–14.02.13 2,000 60% 24.8 15.3 18.2 11.9 10.1 9.1 4.5 6.6
GESOP 14.01.13–16.01.13 800 ? 25.2 13.4 16.9 11.5 10.0 9.8 5.2 8.3
NC Report 16.12.12–21.12.12 880 62.0% 29.6 14.7 14.9 13.5 9.8 7.9 3.6 14.7
Regional Election 25.11.12 N/A 67.8% 30.7 14.4 13.7 13.0 9.9 7.6 3.5 16.3

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Multi-scenario poll   Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

68 seats needed for a majority
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling
Regional Election September 27, 2015 62 16 11 w. 0 25 10 w. 11
TNS Demoscopia September 27, 2015 63/66 14/16 9/11 w. 0/3 19/21 11/13 w. 12/14
Directe.cat September 26, 2015 67/71 14/16 10/11 w. 0 17/19 10/12 w. 13/15
Metroscopia September 25, 2015 64/65 15/17 8/9 w. 0 23/25 10/11 w. 11/12
Opinòmetre September 25, 2015 62/64 16/18 8/10 w. 5/6 20/21 6/8 w. 12/14
GAD3 September 25, 2015 62/65 16/18 10/12 w. 2/3 18/20 9/11 w. 11/13
Técnicas Demoscópicas September 21, 2015 62/64 14/15 13 w. 0/3 18/20 9 w. 15
Celeste-Tel September 21, 2015 59/62 16/17 10/12 w. 0/1 22/23 9/10 w. 12/13
Celeste-Tel September 20, 2015 59/62 15/17 11/12 w. 0/1 22/23 8/10 w. 13/14
Celeste-Tel September 19, 2015 58/61 15/16 11/12 w. 1/2 22/23 7/9 w. 13/14
Encuestamos September 19, 2015 54/57 17/19 12/14 w. 0/2 17/19 10/12 w. 18/21
NC Report September 19, 2015 59 16 13 w. 3 20 8 w. 16
Celeste-Tel September 18, 2015 59/62 15/18 11/13 w. 2/3 20/21 7/9 w. 16/17
GAD3 September 18, 2015 65/67 14/16 12/13 w. 0/2 18/20 7/9 w. 12/13
NC Report September 18, 2015 59/60 15/16 13/14 w. 3/5 20/22 7/8 w. 15/16
Sigma Dos September 17, 2015 65/66 13/14 12/13 w. 0/2 19/20 9 w. 14
Feedback September 17, 2015 63/65 12/14 12/13 w. 3 20/21 8 w. 13/15
My Word September 17, 2015 61/65 14/16 10 w. 0 21/22 9/12 w. 15/17
NC Report September 17, 2015 59/60 15/16 12/13 w. 4/5 21/22 6/7 w. 15/16
Metroscopia September 16, 2015 66/67 14 10 w. 0/2 19 10/11 w. 14
DYM September 16, 2015 63/65 10/11 16 w. 0 21/23 10/11 w. 12
Opinòmetre September 16, 2015 60/62 15/17 14/16 w. 5/6 18/20 6/8 w. 17/19
NC Report September 16, 2015 59/60 15/16 12/13 w. 4/5 22/23 5/6 w. 16
Sigma Dos September 15, 2015 65/66 12 11/13 w. 0 20 10 w. 15/17
NC Report September 15, 2015 59 15 12 w. 5 23 5 w. 16
Invymark September 14, 2015 64 14 12 w. 0 20 8 w. 17
JxSí September 12, 2015 64/66 13/15 13/15 w. 0 17/18 8 w. 17/19
Sondaxe September 8, 2015 65 16 16 w. 0 16 8 w. 14
IBES September 8, 2015 64/65 15/16 12/13 w. 0/2 18/19 9/10 w. 13/14
Invymark September 7, 2015 63 15 13 w. 0 19 8 w. 17
CIS September 4, 2015 60/61 16/17 12/13 w. 0 19/20 8 w. 18/19
GAPS September 3, 2015 65/70 12/13 14/17 w. 0 15/18 8/10 w. 12/16
Sigma Dos September 3, 2015 62/65 14/15 13 w. 3 16/17 8/9 w. 15/17
GESOP September 2, 2015 60/62 13/14 10/11 w. 0/2 25/27 7/8 w. 15/17
NC Report August 22, 2015 57 16 12 w. 5 25 4 w. 16
NC Report July 23, 2015 56 18 10 w. 5 27 3 w. 16
Feedback July 9, 2015 68/72 9/10 7/9 w. 2/3 21/23 w. w. 22/23
GAPS July 3, 2015 52 12 12 w. 3 20 10 w. 26
GAPS July 3, 2015 75 13 8 w. 2 14 w. w. 23
Feedback December 4, 2014 64 13 11 7 w. 19 6 15
GESOP November 17, 2014 58/60 13/14 9/10 9/11 0 15/16 8 20/21

References

  1. "Mas announces an agreement with ERC and will call a snap election for 27 September 2015" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-14.
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