DICE model

"RICE model" redirects here. For the radio propagation model, see Longley-Rice model.

The Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, referred to as the DICE model or Dice model, is a computer-based integrated assessment model developed by William Nordhaus that “integrates in an end-to-end fashion the economics, carbon cycle, climate science, and impacts in a highly aggregated model that allows a weighing of the costs and benefits of taking steps to slow greenhouse warming." Nordhaus also developed the RICE model (Regional Integrated Climate-Economy model), a variant of the DICE model that was updated and developed alongside the DICE model.[1][2][3][4] Others who collaborated with Nordhaus to develop the model include David Popp, Zili Yang, Joseph Boyer, and other colleagues.[2]

The DICE model is one of the three main integrated assessment models used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and it provides estimates intermediate between the other two models.[4][5]

History

Precursors

According to a summary of the DICE and RICE models prepared by Stephen Newbold,[1] the earliest precursor to DICE was a linear programming model of energy supply and demand in two 1977 papers of William Nordhaus.[6][7] Although dynamic (in that it considered the changing levels of supply of fuel based on supply and demand and the consequence impact on carbon dioxide emissions) the model did not attempt to measure the economic impact of climate change.[1] A 1991 paper by Nordhaus developed a steady-state model of both the economy and climate, coming quite close to the DICE model.[1][8]

The model

The model appears to have first been proposed by economist William Nordhaus in a discussion paper for the Cowles Foundation in February 1992.[9] He also wrote a brief note outlining the main ideas in an article for Science in November 1992.[10] A subsequent revised model was published in Resource and Energy Economics in 1993.[11][12]

Nordhaus published an improved version of the model in the October 1994 book Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change,[13] with the first chapter as well as an appendix containing a computer program both freely available online.[14][15] Marian Radetzki reviewed the book for The Energy Journal.[16]

In 1998, Nordhaus published a revised version of the DICE model in multiple papers, one of which was coauthored with Joseph Boyer in order to understand the effects of the proposed Kyoto Protocol.[17][18]

In 1999, Nordhaus published computer programs and spreadsheets implementing a revised version of the DICE model as well as a variant called the RICE model (RICE stands for Regional Integrated Climate-Economics, signifying that the modeling of economics and climate are being done only for a particular region rather than the whole world).[19][20]

In 2000, Nordhaus and Boyer co-authored a book published by MIT Press titled Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming with a detailed description of the updated DICE and RICE models.[21]

In 2001, Nordhaus published revised spreadsheets for the RICE model.[22]

In November 2006, Nordhaus published a new version of the DICE model with updated data, and used it to review the Stern Review.[2][23][24]

In 2010, updated RICE and DICE models were published, and the new RICE model was explained by Nordhaus in an article for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (US).[25][26]

In 2013, the book The Climate Casino by Nordhaus, with updated discussion of the DICE and RICE models and the broader policy implications, was published by Yale University Press.[27] A background on the latest version of the models as used in the book was published on Nordhaus' website.[28][29]

Reception

Academic reception

A number of variants of the DICE model have been published by researchers working separately from Nordhaus.[30][31]

The DICE model is also included in advanced university coursework related to environmental and energy economics and climate change.[32]

Reception in the public policy world

The DICE and RICE models have received considerable attention from others studying the economic impact of climate change. it is one of the models used by the Environmental Protection Agency for estimating the social cost of carbon.[4][5] Stephen Newbold of the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States reviewed the models in 2010.[1]

The Basque Centre for Climate Change, in an October 2009 review of integrated assessment models for climate change, discussed the DICE model in detail.[33]

A report from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in the United States, called the DICE model "flawed beyond use for policymaking" on account of its extreme sensitivity to initial assumptions.[5] Similar criticisms, including criticisms of the specific choice of discount rates chosen in the model, have been made by others.[34][35]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Newbold, Stephen (November 2010). "Summary of the DICE model" (PDF). Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 Nordhaus, William (November 2006). "RICE and DICE Models of Economics of Climate Change". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  3. ↑ Nordhaus, William; Boyer, Joseph (October 1999). "Summary of Roll the DICE Again: The Economics of Global Warming". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  4. 1 2 3 "Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy model (DICE)". Environmental Protection Agency, United States. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  5. 1 2 3 Dayaratna, Kevin; Kreutzer, David (November 21, 2013). "Loaded DICE: An EPA Model Not Ready for the Big Game". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  6. ↑ Nordhaus, William (1977). "Strategies for the control of carbon dioxide (Cowles Foundation discussion paper no. 443" (PDF). Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  7. ↑ Nordhaus, Wiliam (February 1977). "Economic Growth and Climate: The Carbon Dioxide Problem" (PDF). 67 (1). American Economic Review: 341–346. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  8. ↑ Nordhaus, William (July 1991). "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect.". The Economic Journal. 101 (407): 920. doi:10.2307/2233864. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  9. ↑ Nordhaus, William (February 1992). "The "Dice" Model: Background and Structure of a Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model of the Economics of Global Warming (Cowles Foundation discussion paper no. 1009)" (PDF). Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  10. ↑ Nordhaus, William (November 20, 1992). "An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases" (PDF). Science. 258: 1315–1319. doi:10.1126/science.258.5086.1315. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  11. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "Original DICE and RICE models". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  12. ↑ Nordhaus, William (1993). "Rolling the 'DICE': An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases". Resource and Energy Economics. 15.
  13. ↑ Nordhaus, William (October 4, 1994). Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. MIT Press.
  14. ↑ Nordhaus, William (October 4, 1994). "Appendix. Computer Program for DICE model". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  15. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "Chapter 1 (Managing the Global Commons". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  16. ↑ Radetzki, Marian (1995). "Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change". The Energy Journal. 16 (2). JSTOR 41323453.
  17. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "III. Research Papers Using revised DICE and RICE Models". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  18. ↑ Nordhaus, William; Boyer, Joseph (February 8, 1999). "Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol" (PDF). Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  19. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "GAMS Computer Programs for RICE-99". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  20. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "Spreadsheet Versions of DICE-99 and RICE-99 models". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  21. ↑ Nordhaus, William; Boyer, Joseph (August 21, 2000). Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming (hardcover). MIT Press. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  22. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "Spreadsheet Version of RICE-2001 Model Used for Science Article". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  23. ↑ Nordhaus, William (November 16, 2006). "DICE model recalibrated to data for November 2006". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  24. ↑ Nordhaus, William (November 17, 2006). "Documentation for DICE-2006, November 2006 round" (PDF). Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  25. ↑ Nordhaus, William (May 10, 2010). "Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment" (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 107: 11721–11726. doi:10.1073/pnas.1005985107. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  26. ↑ Nordhaus, William (March 20, 2012). "RICE-2010 and DICE-2010 Models (as of March 20, 2012)". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  27. ↑ Nordhaus, William (October 22, 2013). The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0300189773.
  28. ↑ Nordhaus, William. "Background on the DICE Models For Readers of The Climate Casino (2013)". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  29. ↑ Nordhaus, William (January 22, 2014). "Scientific and Economic Background on DICE-2013R Model as of January 22, 2014". Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  30. ↑ Traeger, Christian (December 1, 2013). "A 4-Stated Dice: Quantitatively Addressing Uncertainty Effects in Climate Chan". Social Science Research Network. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  31. ↑ Popp, David (2003). "ENTICE: Endogenous Technological Change in the DICE Model of Global Warming". National Bureau of Economic Research (Working Paper). Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  32. ↑ Traeger, Christian. "The Economics of Climate Change -C175" (PDF). University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  33. ↑ Ramon Arigoni Ortiz; Anil Markandya (October 2009). "Integrated Impact Assessment Models of Climate Change with an Emphasis on Damage Functions: a Literature Review". Basque Centre for Climate Change. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  34. ↑ Stanton, Elizabeth (April 2009). "Towards Greater Transparency in Climate Economics: Deconstructing DICE-2007 (a brief prepared for Economics for Equity and the Environment Network)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 23, 2014. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
  35. ↑ "Criticism of economic models". Lomborg-errors.dk. Retrieved February 19, 2014.
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